4421 Kemper St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$133,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1996 7,718 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Now offering $2,000 in closing cost! * Investors Special! Turn-key, low-maintenance investment opportunity in North Lubbock! This updated 3/1.5/1 property is currently leased for $1,200 per month through March 2027, offering immediate and reliable cash flow for investors. Conveniently located just minutes from TTU, LCU, and local hospitals, this home is ideally situated for long-term rental demand. Completely updated throughout, the property features fresh interior and exterior paint, new laminate flooring, new windows and doors, and major system upgrades including new appliances, HVAC, and hot water heater. In addition to the modernized interior, the home offers excellent curb appeal a

Key facts

• Updated property
• Spacious backyard
• New appliances

Tags

• UPDATED PROPERTY
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS AND DOORS
• MAJOR SYSTEM UPGRADES
• NEW APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Utilities information not specified
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 1,156
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Paved road access; No additional exterior equipment listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 618 students, 84% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,000
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,338
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,375/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $173	+0% $135	+5% $97	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $81	+0% $135	+5% $189	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $169	base $135	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4412 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,250	$1.08	44d	1	0.08mi
4512 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	44d	1	0.09mi
4530 Marshall St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1106	$1,600	$1.45	14d	1	0.20mi
4605 Harvard St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,400	$1.03	22d	1	0.22mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,474	$1.02	44d	1	0.29mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,700	$1.18	14d	1	0.29mi
4638 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	949	$1,100	$1.16	22d	1	0.43mi
3701 Clovis Rd Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,400	$1.68	14d	19	0.84mi
212 N Troy Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	22d	1	0.88mi
1415 N Knoxville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1291	$934	$0.72	14d	1	0.91mi
201 N Troy Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$875	$1.07	44d	1	0.92mi
201 N Troy Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$875	$1.07	22d	1	0.92mi
139 N Troy Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$725	$0.89	22d	1	0.94mi
128 N Troy Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	14d	1	0.97mi
701 N Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$850	$1.26	22d	1	1.15mi
908 N Belmont Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,175	$0.86	44d	1	1.16mi
906 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,225	$0.90	44d	1	1.16mi
3318 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$950	$0.89	14d	1	1.20mi
602 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,325	$0.97	14d	3	1.21mi
3307 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	22d	1	1.27mi
5420 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1381	$1,175	$0.85	44d	1	1.30mi
306 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$895	$1.19	44d	1	1.31mi
3119 Jarvis St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,025	$0.76	14d	1	1.35mi
5504 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.35mi
5501 Jarvis St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,450	$1.00	22d	1	1.35mi
1217 N Chicago Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	1.36mi
1309 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	14d	1	1.37mi
1315 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	22d	1	1.37mi
522 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.38mi
5506 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.38mi
5511 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	4.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	14d	1	1.38mi
310 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	44d	1	1.38mi
5513 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.39mi
516 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.39mi
503 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.39mi
1303 N Clinton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	44d	1	1.41mi
5515 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,425	$1.06	44d	1	1.42mi
533 N Clinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1340	$1,300	$0.97	44d	1	1.44mi
5516 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.44mi
505 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,425	$0.99	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $133,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $133,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $133,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $133,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $135,000 Active 840-char remark
16. 2024-09-16
    price $148,000
17. 2024-08-05
    price $150,000
18. 2024-07-15
    price $153,500
19. 2024-06-05
    soldstatus
20. 2024-05-28
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2024-04-07
    status Pending
22. 2024-03-27
    listed $95,000 Active
23. 1996-07-01
    soldstatus
24. 1996-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$2,375
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable loss: −$505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $133,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $133,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $148,000 LARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $150,000 LARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $153,500 LARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-28 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2024-04-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $95,000 LARMLS
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,375 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.