489 Bachmanville Rd · Conewago, PA 17033

$209,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1947 0.32 ac lot Est $253k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OFFERS RECEIVED! All offers are due by 12:00 Noon on Sunday April 19th. Open House will still take place on Saturday, April 18th from 1-3 as previously scheduled. Looking for an affordable home in Lower Dauphin School district with a country setting? Then look no more! This three- or four-bedroom cape cod features a large living room a kitchen, 1 bath and two bedrooms on the first floor and two additional bedrooms, a siting room, and a half bath on the 2nd floor. One bedroom on the main level currently serves as a dining room but is easily converted back to a bedroom, For the cars and toys is a two-car detached garage with an attached shed behind it for additional storage. Enjoy summers

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lower Dauphin SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Londonderry El Sch (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 222 students, 42% FRL); Lower Dauphin Ms (math 28% / reading 53%, grade F, #248 of 512 statewide, top 50%, 883 students, 27% FRL); Lower Dauphin Hs (math 82%, 1,085 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,190 (1.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,038
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
489 Bachmanville Rd	0.00mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,398 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$179	94
352 Bachmanville Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	5mo	$289,900	$181	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,149
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,254
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17033

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $301	+0% $241	+5% $182	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $159	+0% $241	+5% $323	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $294	base $241	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $209,900 Active
3. 2026-04-14
   historical $209,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lower Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4214100
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,760
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conewago

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,481
• Household income: $72,945
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 709.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.78%
• Current HPI: 279.7607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $209,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,490 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.