37818 Valencia Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$112,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1981 3,485 sqft lot Est $96k · 16% over $114/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Spanish Trails Senior Village, a sought-after 55+ community where pride of ownership truly shines. This lovingly maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers numerous recent updates, including updated vinyl flooring, a new kitchen sink, a new step-in shower and vanity in the primary bathroom, and some newer double-pane windows. With thoughtful improvements throughout and exceptional attention to detail, this well-maintained home is truly move-in ready. Enjoy peace of mind with a durable metal roof and low-maintenance vinyl siding. Step inside to a comfortable and functional layout designed for easy Florida living. The bright Florida room, located at the front of the home

Key facts

• New step-in shower
• Walk-in closet
• New kitchen sink

Tags

• UPDATED VINYL FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• NEW STEP-IN SHOWER
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Community features include street lights, deed restrictions, golf carts OK
• Financial info: Total monthly fees shown as $114; total annual fees shown as $1,368; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee of $114 (includes pool, trash, private road, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund); Association amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Buyer approval required for association; Senior community; Pets allowed (dogs and cats), max pet weight ~25 lbs; Association contact: Tammi Hayden

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Level lot; Asphalt/paved roads; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation (utility access)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Florida room (additional living space)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,320 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.15%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,288
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37843 Barcelona Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	840 (+3%)	3mo	$99,000	$118	90
7133 EL Matador St	0.16mi	2/2.0	864 (+6%)	11mo	$79,000	$91	74
7117 EL Rancho Way #367	0.19mi	2/2.0	896 (+10%)	4mo	$118,000	$132	72
37826 Daughtery Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0	720 (-12%)	11mo	$126,500	$176	69
7045 EL Dewitt St	0.08mi	2/2.0	732 (-10%)	12mo	$55,000	$75	69
38533 Ethel Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	720 (-12%)	1mo	$69,900	$97	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,261
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $21,037
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$114
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $454	+0% $422	+5% $390	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $361	+0% $422	+5% $483	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $451	base $422	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.01mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	0.40mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	0.65mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	0.69mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.69mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,970	$1.83	0d	33	0.75mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.79mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	3d	142	0.88mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.06mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	1.15mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	1.22mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	25d	1	1.27mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	25d	1	1.27mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	0d	1	1.29mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	18d	1	1.39mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	1.41mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	1.42mi
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	25d	1	1.49mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	19d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $114 · $1,368/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $112,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $112,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $930 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 67.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − HOA: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable income: $3,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $4,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.