9850 SE 178th Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1993 7,841 sqft lot Est $273k · 34% under $178/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to the incredible 55+ Gated Golf Community of SPRUCE CREEK SOUTH, perfectly situated adjacent to THE VILLAGES, Florida and offering an exceptional lifestyle filled with amenities and endless opportunities for enjoyment. This charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Palm floor plan Features an Enclosed LANAI and patio slab, creating the perfect space to relax and take in the peaceful surroundings. Inside, vaulted ceilings in the living room add an open, airy feel, while the home has been well maintained with an HVAC system updated in 2016 and a roof from 2005. Ideally located just a short distance from the community pool and clubhouse, this home places yo

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Gated golf community

Tags

• GATED GOLF COMMUNITY
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• PATIO SLAB
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,315 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17815 SE 102nd Ter	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,372 (+1%)	3mo	$235,000	$171	73
10340 SE 177th Pl	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$207,000	$160	66
2670 Privada Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+3%)	0mo	$307,450	$221	61
1502 EL Paso Way	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+3%)	5mo	$294,000	$211	55
2732 Privada Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+3%)	5mo	$280,000	$201	54
2731 Privada Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	2mo	$250,000	$200	53
1705 Betrillo Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (-11%)	3mo	$238,000	$197	48
2604 Privada Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (-11%)	0mo	$269,000	$222	48
1638 Duran Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,179 (-13%)	3mo	$253,000	$215	47
10410 SE 179th Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+12%)	3mo	$205,000	$134	45
2517 Privada Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,527 (+13%)	3mo	$312,000	$204	39
2737 Privada Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,527 (+13%)	5mo	$300,000	$196	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,910
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,684
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$178
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $302	+0% $252	+5% $201	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $174	+0% $252	+5% $329	+10% $407
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $297	base $252	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	22d	1	0.27mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	0.32mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	0.39mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	0.60mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	0.67mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	0.70mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	0.78mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	0.86mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	22d	1	1.06mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	22d	1	1.07mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	1.28mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	22d	1	1.38mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.39mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	1.40mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	1.42mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	1.45mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $178 · $2,136/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Active
3. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$110/yr (+$9/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.