14 Scammell Dr · Browns Mills, NJ 08015

$305,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1976 7,840 sqft lot $229/sqft · 6% below area Est $324k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coming Soon - 3 bedroom 1 bath Ranch with a family room and an open floor plan. Close to Joint Base. Make any appointment today to view.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 135 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($591/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in Browns Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Township High School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #298 of 399 statewide, top 75%, 1,057 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 37% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $305k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,091
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: -5.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Railroad St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,332 (-0%)	6mo	$343,500	$258	92
228 Coville Dr	0.06mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,310 (-2%)	1mo	$335,000	$256	89
607 Marie Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	1mo	$370,000	$285	88
215 Coville Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,348 (+1%)	7mo	$275,000	$204	86
217 Coville Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+2%)	7mo	$318,000	$235	85
71 Monroe Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-3%)	2mo	$315,000	$245	83
601 Concord Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-0%)	5mo	$375,000	$282	82
203 Coville Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,348 (+1%)	10mo	$364,000	$270	80
207 Coville Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+7%)	11mo	$300,000	$210	70
146 Arch St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-10%)	4mo	$312,000	$261	65
30 Press Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+0%)	3mo	$360,000	$269	63
700 Concord Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,480 (+11%)	12mo	$355,000	$240	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,227
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-35,974
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,915/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,704

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $136	+0% $49	+5% $-37	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-60	+0% $49	+5% $159	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $127	base $49	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Juliustown Rd Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,895	$1.80	45d	1	0.66mi
27 Carlisle St Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	984	$2,900	$2.95	45d	1	0.99mi
601 E Lakeshore Dr Browns Mills, NJ	2.0	1.0	961	$2,595	$2.70	12d	1	1.23mi
126 Juniper Ave Browns Mills, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,500	$2.29	20d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $305,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    listed $349,000 Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Coming Soon - 3 bedroom 1 bath Ranch with a family room and an open floor plan. Close to Joint Base. Make any appointment today to view.

18. 2026-01-21
    historical $349,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Coming Soon - 3 bedroom 1 bath Ranch with a family room and an open floor plan. Close to Joint Base. Make any appointment today to view.

19. 2002-03-05
    historical
20. 2001-02-04
    listed $94,900
21. 1988-05-23
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,915 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,255 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,340/yr (+$112/mo · 27.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,915
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$4,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Browns Mills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #15864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Browns Mills, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+405.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Coming Soon $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-03-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-02-04 Listed $94,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,915 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.