2187 Winterberry Ln · Cambridge, MD 21613

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · Townhouse · 147 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2,396 sqft lot $142/sqft · 38% below area Est $406k · 38% under $267/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quick Move In

Key facts

• $267 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($187/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,357
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -38.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2150 Winterberry Ln #20	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-12%)	7mo	$299,990	$194	74
2199 Winterberry Ln Unit K	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-12%)	7mo	$249,990	$162	69
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-2%)	5mo	$226,000	$131	59
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 409E	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-7%)	1mo	$435,000	$265	55
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 304E	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-8%)	5mo	$407,500	$250	50
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 311B	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-14%)	4mo	$275,000	$182	40
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 410C	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-14%)	18mo	$415,000	$273	30
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 310C	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-14%)	19mo	$395,000	$260	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,314
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,133
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$267
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $249,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $102	+0% $16	+5% $-71	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-85	+0% $16	+5% $116	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $79	base $16	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	45d	1	0.04mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	45d	1	0.12mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	45d	1	0.14mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	45d	1	0.15mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	45d	1	0.16mi
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	45d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $267 · $3,204/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 13-char remark

   Show marketing remark (13 chars)

   Quick Move In

2. 2026-04-24
   price $249,990 13-char remark

   Show marketing remark (13 chars)

   Quick Move In

3. 2025-12-16
   price $259,990 13-char remark

   Show marketing remark (13 chars)

   Quick Move In

4. 2025-12-16
   listed $269,990 Active 13-char remark

   Show marketing remark (13 chars)

   Quick Move In

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − HOA: −$3,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$3,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$919
• After-tax cash flow: $1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a fresh, modern aesthetic. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Both Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• Population (ZIP): 18,167

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $249,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $259,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $269,990 BRIGHT MLS