490 S Ogden St Unit W · Buffalo, NY 14206

$159,400

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1900 3,390 sqft lot Est $178k · 10% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 490 S. Ogden Street, a well-maintained 3/3 double offering a fantastic opportunity for both owner-occupiers and investors. This property boasts hardwood floors throughout, providing a warm and inviting atmosphere in each unit. With solid mechanics in place, you can enjoy peace of mind and low maintenance living. The property features a full basement, offering ample storage space or potential for additional living areas. A detached garage provides convenient parking and extra storage options. Lower is currently vacant, this property presents a great opportunity for rental income. Located near public transportation, shopping, and more, you'll appreciate the easy access to all the e

Key facts

• Full basement
• Hardwood floors
• Detached garage

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,424/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,054 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.13%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Weiss St	0.35mi	6/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	1mo	$205,000	$112	75
290 Fenton St	0.32mi	6/2.0	2,024 (+6%)	6mo	$139,900	$69	70
283 Holly St	0.31mi	6/2.0	1,920 (+0%)	18mo	$187,200	$98	69
210 Weimar St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$95	66
120 Weiss St	0.46mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+7%)	2mo	$80,000	$39	61
204 Cable St	0.38mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (+7%)	7mo	$190,000	$93	60
323 Holly St	0.24mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+10%)	8mo	$180,000	$85	60
34 Pleasant Pkwy	0.24mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,044 (+7%)	13mo	$252,000	$123	57
241 Willett St	0.40mi	5/2.5 (-1)	1,773 (-7%)	8mo	$200,000	$113	56
150 Weiss St	0.42mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (+11%)	8mo	$100,000	$47	50
111 Roberts Ave	0.73mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-5%)	5mo	$115,000	$64	48
192 Rossler Ave	0.68mi	7/3.0 (+1)	1,931 (+1%)	17mo	$119,900	$62	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $128,106
• Equity at exit: $121,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.29×
• Total profit: $325,588
• Equity at exit: $242,247

Cash invested: $44,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $159,400

Occupancy floor 55%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$2,424
Total (2 units)			$2,424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,850
• Closing costs: $4,782
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-21
   price $159,400
4. 2026-01-03
   price $159,900
5. 2025-11-25
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,103/yr (+$92/mo · 226.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,929
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,327
• − Management: −$2,327
• − Depreciation: −$4,637
• Taxable income: $9,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,300
• After-tax cash flow: $9,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $159,400 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $164,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $488 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.