1558 Santa Fe Pike · Columbia, TN 38401

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1986 1.30 ac lot $150/sqft · 41% below area Est $374k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple Offers Received! Full of charm and character, this unique property offers a peaceful mini-farm lifestyle with convenient access to Columbia amenities. Situated on a shady lot, the outdoor space is designed for relaxation and enjoyment with a koi pond, above-ground pool, covered front porch, an outdoor living area, and plenty of room to unwind. A white picket fence encloses part of the front yard, ideal for small pets or play space. Bring your animals and enjoy the existing run-in shelter suitable for small livestock or hobby farm use. Inside, the home features many custom characteristics and added touches of charm to make for a cozy, peaceful, farmhouse feel. High-ceilings, open ov

Key facts

• Koi pond
• Covered front porch
• Outdoor living area

Tags

• KOI POND
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• WHITE PICKET FENCE
• RUN IN SHELTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax recorded
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No listed covered or total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Water available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Patio; Front yard fencing; Above-ground private pool; Satellite dish

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Second bedroom with extra-large closet
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Gas fireplace (1, gas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northfield Academy (99 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1129 active listings in the ZIP; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $220k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,091 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,754
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -41.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1551 Roberts Bend Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-15%)	12mo	$420,000	$337	46
1710 New Highway 7	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+13%)	10mo	$375,000	$226	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,546
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,576
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1129
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $200,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-45	+0% $-108	+5% $-170	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-168	+0% $-108	+5% $-48	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-52	base $-108	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $220,000 Active 1633-char remark
2. 2007-08-15
   soldstatus $107,000
3. 2002-09-04
   soldstatus $96,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$795/yr (+$66/mo · 103.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+127.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $220,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $96,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.