12 Garden Hill Rd · Middlefield, CT 06455

$359,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 0.61 ac lot Est $387k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Grandma's House!" 12 Garden Hill Road has only seen One Owner since it's construction in 1959 and now must sell. This is the type of house you want to purchase and make your home- you will feel it's warmth and love the second you step in the front door. Cosmetically it is a step back in time but most of the majors have been replaced and/or upgraded, including the roof, siding, windows, furnace, oil tank, well tank, and electric, all which will help with easy living. Shortly after construction an addition was made which added a good sized family room to the first floor (the town is listing it as a bedroom) or would be a perfect office if you don't need a family room/4th bedroom. Located on a quiet non thru street this picture perfect home features a yard that everyone wants but is so hard to find- it is deep, flat, and wide. As a matter of fact it was where all the neighborhood kids played baseball once upon a time because of it's size! Also know that there is hardwood under most if not all of the carpeting which would be easy to uncover and showcase. If you are looking for a home that has a happy history, on a cul de sac, with a large flat yard come take a look before it's spoken for. You'll love it!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Rich hardwood floors

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• LEVEL PARK-LIKE LAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BAY WINDOW
• RICH HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1); Driveway parking; Total parking for 3 vehicles; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Oil hot water with 30-gallon tank; Fuel tank located in basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Exterior lighting; Level lot on a cul-de-sac; Private asphalt driveway; Paved surfaces and off-street parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil-fired); Ceiling fans; Wall-mounted cooling unit
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Bath grab bars; Closet bars installed 15–48 inches off the floor; Has attic with pull-down stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer and electric dryer included; Laundry hookups on main level; laundry currently in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($236/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 13 (rural): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #52 of 153 in CT (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank Ward Strong School (math 49% / reading 61%, grade B-, #65 of 175 statewide, top 37%, 308 students, 15% FRL); Coginchaug Regional High School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #33 of 194 statewide, top 18%, 384 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $233k; list at $359k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,396 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,555
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Cherry Hill Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,142 (-8%)	11mo	$357,500	$313	73
9 Garden Hill Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-12%)	9mo	$298,000	$274	70
18 Garden Hill Rd	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,391 (+13%)	20mo	$313,000	$225	61
20 Janet Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+15%)	14mo	$460,000	$324	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-56,896
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-47,825
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06455

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,993/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,099

Max offer price $359,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $121	+0% $20	+5% $-82	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-104	+0% $20	+5% $143	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $111	base $20	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Cherry Hill Rd Middlefield, CT	3.0	1.0	1068	$2,500	$2.34	25d	1	0.04mi
6 Nancy Ln Unit 1261565P Middlefield, CT	2.0	1.5	1194	$4,876	$4.08	16d	1	0.25mi
204 Ross Rd Rockfall, CT	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,900	$1.67	12d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $359,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $359,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,993 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,338 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,345/yr (+$112/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$4,993
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,999
• − Management: −$2,999
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$5,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $1,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 13
• NCES district ID: 0903535
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $101,259
• Composite: 52.2/100
• National rank: #1606
• State rank: #52 of 153 in CT

Livability — Middlefield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,592

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 7% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.37%
• Current HPI: 168.0716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+43.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $359,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-02 Sold (MLS) $233,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-05-24 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2018-05-03 Listed $249,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,993 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.