21 Polk Cir · Pryor Creek, OK 74361

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2005 0.48 ac lot Est $140k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Deck off the back. Hud prop subj to hud regs & bid proced, insured with escrow ($880), buyer respons. for replacing any missing meters, bid deadline 12/07/2008, 11:59pm, #422-273612.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac
• Office flex space
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• OFFICE FLEX SPACE
• CUL-DE-SAC
• IN-GROUND STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Single-story; Faces south; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Metal roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Cross-fenced yard; Storm shelter; No other exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Aluminum frame windows; Laminate counters; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.8% in Pryor Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#51 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pryor (town): math 24% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #143 of 270 in OK (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roosevelt Es (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 526 students, 0% FRL); Pryor Ms (math 19% / reading 21%, grade F, #158 of 345 statewide, top 47%, 650 students, 0% FRL); Pryor Hs (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #96 of 447 statewide, top 26%, 800 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Mayes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mayes County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $120k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.14%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,552
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 Spring Creek St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	8mo	$65,000	$43	84
46 Sun Prairie St	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	12mo	$130,000	$83	82
270 Sun Prairie St	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	19mo	$159,000	$101	82
425 N Sun Prairie St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	2mo	$35,500	$20	76
332 Spring Creek St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	13mo	$133,000	$88	72
130 Sun Prairie St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	6mo	$149,900	$89	70
300 Spring Creek St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	8mo	$145,000	$100	69
28 Spring Creek St	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,540 (-2%)	14mo	$146,400	$95	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,522
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,193
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74361

• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $458	+0% $424	+5% $390	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $365	+0% $424	+5% $482	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $454	base $424	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 2023-06-23
    status Pending
20. 2023-06-23
    historical
21. 2023-06-19
    listed $49,000 Active
22. 2009-04-10
    soldstatus $36,900 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Deck off the back. Hud prop subj to hud regs & bid proced, insured with escrow ($880), buyer respons. for replacing any missing meters, bid deadline 12/07/2008, 11:59pm, #422-273612.

23. 2008-12-19
    historical 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Deck off the back. Hud prop subj to hud regs & bid proced, insured with escrow ($880), buyer respons. for replacing any missing meters, bid deadline 12/07/2008, 11:59pm, #422-273612.

24. 2008-11-28
    listed $36,900 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Deck off the back. Hud prop subj to hud regs & bid proced, insured with escrow ($880), buyer respons. for replacing any missing meters, bid deadline 12/07/2008, 11:59pm, #422-273612.

25. 2008-07-11
    historical
26. 2008-01-10
    listed $101,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$795
• After-tax cash flow: $4,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pryor
• NCES district ID: 4025200
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,306
• Composite: 19.46/100
• National rank: #8774
• State rank: #143 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pryor Creek

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #8653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mayes County · 17,612 people
• City population: 17,582
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,612
• Household income: $58,681
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 326.0

Population outlook (Mayes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,941 people
• By 2030: 39,172 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 37,540 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 35,854 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 32,361 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 28,054 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Native American 18% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mayes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.5) · D 20.3% · R 77.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -57.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.5 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.81%
• Current HPI: 247.7737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+18.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $120,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2023-06-23 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2023-06-23 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2023-06-19 Listed $49,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2009-04-10 Sold (MLS) $36,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-12-19 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-11-28 Listed $36,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-07-11 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-01-10 Listed $101,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.