40506 Tyto Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,064 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 4,600 sqft lot $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Addington floor plan is designed with modern living in mind, prioritizing both functionality and a sense of openness. The combination of the large kitchen island and the great room would likely create a great flow for socializing and interaction, making it perfect for gatherings. Plus, the primary suite being on the first floor offers that added layer of privacy and convenience, while the secondary bedrooms upstairs give a nice separation for guests.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Great room
• 4,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE ON FIRST FLOOR
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Management; Annual association fee of $1,850

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Tankless water heater; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Single-family design; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 16); Bedroom on second floor (13 x 12); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 12); Bedroom on second floor (13 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; HVAC included; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom has a bath; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low-emissivity windows; Radiant attic barrier; Insulation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $299,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,105.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($506/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $240,765 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,105
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 3.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $154,310
• Equity at exit: $261,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $440,723
• Equity at exit: $563,610

Cash invested: $81,229 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $290,105

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $124	+0% $42	+5% $-40	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-53	+0% $42	+5% $137	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $116	base $42	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,526
• Closing costs: $8,703
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.07mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.08mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.28mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.56mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.89mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	1.07mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	1.26mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    historical
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $299,900 Active 457-char remark
17. 2026-05-06
    price $299,900

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    The Addington floor plan is designed with modern living in mind, prioritizing both functionality and a sense of openness. The combination of the large kitchen island and the great room would likely create a great flow for socializing and interaction, making it perfect for gatherings. Plus, the primary suite being on the first floor offers that added layer of privacy and convenience, while the secondary bedrooms upstairs give a nice separation for guests.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $299,900

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    The Addington floor plan is designed with modern living in mind, prioritizing both functionality and a sense of openness. The combination of the large kitchen island and the great room would likely create a great flow for socializing and interaction, making it perfect for gatherings. Plus, the primary suite being on the first floor offers that added layer of privacy and convenience, while the secondary bedrooms upstairs give a nice separation for guests.

19. 2026-02-26
    price $316,900

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    The Addington floor plan is designed with modern living in mind, prioritizing both functionality and a sense of openness. The combination of the large kitchen island and the great room would likely create a great flow for socializing and interaction, making it perfect for gatherings. Plus, the primary suite being on the first floor offers that added layer of privacy and convenience, while the secondary bedrooms upstairs give a nice separation for guests.

20. 2026-01-21
    listed $326,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    The Addington floor plan is designed with modern living in mind, prioritizing both functionality and a sense of openness. The combination of the large kitchen island and the great room would likely create a great flow for socializing and interaction, making it perfect for gatherings. Plus, the primary suite being on the first floor offers that added layer of privacy and convenience, while the secondary bedrooms upstairs give a nice separation for guests.

21. 2026-01-13
    listed $326,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,725/yr (+$394/mo · 618.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,250
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$8,439
• Taxable loss: −$4,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $1,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $316,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $326,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Listed $326,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.