9120 Barnacle Blvd · Gulf Park Estates, MS 39564

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1987 0.25 ac lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the beautiful coastal town of Ocean Springs and conveniently located to schools, shopping, and the beach, this adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Upon entering the home, you are greeted with a cozy living room, adorned with vaulted wood ceilings and a brick fireplace. Towards the rear of the home, the breakfast nook offers abundant natural light and views into the back yard. The adjoining kitchen offers brand new stainless appliances, custom cabinetry, and tasteful butcher block countertops. You will also enjoy the expansive fenced in back yard. To the right of the home are three large bedrooms, all with brand new carpeting. The oversized primary bedroom offers a private ensuite bathroom. The home is also conveniently located near Lake Mars Pier, offering public boat launches and picturesque views of Biloxi Bay. Call your favorite agent for a private showing today!

Key facts

• Updated throughout
• Brick fireplace
• Fenced in back yard

Tags

• UPDATED THROUGHOUT
• VAULTED WOOD CEILINGS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• PICTURESQUE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.2% in Gulf Park Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#43 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 718 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,408
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9404 Meadowlark Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+1%)	10mo	$199,999	$159	77
2000 Deer St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+7%)	2mo	$210,000	$157	69
9109 Warbler Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	15mo	$175,500	$157	69
1711 S 1st St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+13%)	1mo	$187,000	$133	67
1517 S 10th St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+0%)	8mo	$169,900	$136	64
1501 S 7th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+14%)	6mo	$219,990	$156	56
1497 S 10th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	15mo	$189,900	$144	51
1501 S 10th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	15mo	$189,900	$144	51
9400 Point Aux Chenes Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+13%)	15mo	$249,000	$177	51
8613 Mermaid Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	14mo	$222,900	$169	49
8701 Barnacle Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+13%)	2mo	$174,999	$124	48
1528 S 10th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-9%)	10mo	$158,000	$140	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,458
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,129
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 718
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $421	+0% $368	+5% $314	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $293	+0% $368	+5% $443	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $416	base $368	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9200 Pointe Aux Chenes Rd Unit 1365709P Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1420	$5,979	$4.21	14d	1	0.24mi
1508 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,650	$1.16	14d	1	0.28mi
1517 Porpoise Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,250	$1.51	14d	1	0.43mi
8712 W Simmons Bayou Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	45d	1	0.72mi
2421 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	875	$2,000	$2.29	22d	1	0.82mi
2421 Beachview Dr Unit F16 Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	875	$2,200	$2.51	22d	1	0.82mi
2421 Beachview Dr Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	874	$2,150	$2.46	45d	2	0.84mi
2616 N 15th St Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	45d	1	1.17mi
8700 Spring Ave Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,050	$0.97	22d	1	1.18mi
8700 Spring Ave Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,050	$0.97	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $189,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $204,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $204,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $204,900 931-char remark

    Show marketing remark (931 chars)

    Located in the beautiful coastal town of Ocean Springs and conveniently located to schools, shopping, and the beach, this adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Upon entering the home, you are greeted with a cozy living room, adorned with vaulted wood ceilings and a brick fireplace. Towards the rear of the home, the breakfast nook offers abundant natural light and views into the back yard. The adjoining kitchen offers brand new stainless appliances, custom cabinetry, and tasteful butcher block countertops. You will also enjoy the expansive fenced in back yard. To the right of the home are three large bedrooms, all with brand new carpeting. The oversized primary bedroom offers a private ensuite bathroom. The home is also conveniently located near Lake Mars Pier, offering public boat launches and picturesque views of Biloxi Bay. Call your favorite agent for a private showing today!

11. 2026-05-08
    price $209,900 931-char remark

    Show marketing remark (931 chars)

    Located in the beautiful coastal town of Ocean Springs and conveniently located to schools, shopping, and the beach, this adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Upon entering the home, you are greeted with a cozy living room, adorned with vaulted wood ceilings and a brick fireplace. Towards the rear of the home, the breakfast nook offers abundant natural light and views into the back yard. The adjoining kitchen offers brand new stainless appliances, custom cabinetry, and tasteful butcher block countertops. You will also enjoy the expansive fenced in back yard. To the right of the home are three large bedrooms, all with brand new carpeting. The oversized primary bedroom offers a private ensuite bathroom. The home is also conveniently located near Lake Mars Pier, offering public boat launches and picturesque views of Biloxi Bay. Call your favorite agent for a private showing today!

12. 2026-04-21
    listed $214,900 Active 931-char remark

    Show marketing remark (931 chars)

    Located in the beautiful coastal town of Ocean Springs and conveniently located to schools, shopping, and the beach, this adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Upon entering the home, you are greeted with a cozy living room, adorned with vaulted wood ceilings and a brick fireplace. Towards the rear of the home, the breakfast nook offers abundant natural light and views into the back yard. The adjoining kitchen offers brand new stainless appliances, custom cabinetry, and tasteful butcher block countertops. You will also enjoy the expansive fenced in back yard. To the right of the home are three large bedrooms, all with brand new carpeting. The oversized primary bedroom offers a private ensuite bathroom. The home is also conveniently located near Lake Mars Pier, offering public boat launches and picturesque views of Biloxi Bay. Call your favorite agent for a private showing today!

13. 2026-03-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 90.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$327
• After-tax cash flow: $4,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Park Estates

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #7955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Park Estates, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $204,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $209,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Listed $214,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.