273 Mesa Vw · Conroe, TX 77316

$239,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2002 8,093 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $249k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. This 4 bedroom home is a rare find! Conveniently located just a stone's throw from Lake Conroe and just off of Hwy 105 for easy commuting. Step into the home and you are welcomed by an expansive flex room that could function as additional living space, dining room or anything your heart desires. Continue through to the kitchen and breakfast area boasting stainless steel gas range and island. Living room is accented by a cozy gas fireplace and tall ceilings. Primary suite has attached bath with jetted tub, walk-in shower, and double sinks. 3 additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a guests, home office, or craft room! Backyard is fully fenced and has mature trees for shade as well as a covered patio. Roof is only 18 months old. This home is move in ready!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Expansive flex room
• Mature trees

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• EXPANSIVE FLEX ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL GAS RANGE
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 12182% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,935 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,615
• List price: $239,500
• Delta: -3.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 Mesa Vw	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,823 (0%)	0mo	$239,500	$131	100
256 Mesa Vw	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$145	84
15115 Willowwater Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+3%)	1mo	$260,990	$139	78
15103 Willowwater Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+3%)	2mo	$262,990	$140	76
15037 Ronan Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+0%)	2mo	$288,290	$158	74
15001 Ronan Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+0%)	3mo	$289,190	$158	72
15127 Willowwater Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+9%)	0mo	$262,990	$133	70
15111 Willowwater Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+9%)	1mo	$262,990	$133	69
225 Mesa Vw	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+12%)	2mo	$265,900	$131	68
15223 Abella Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-12%)	3mo	$249,990	$156	66
15119 Willowwater Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-13%)	1mo	$247,990	$157	63
819 Faison Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (-7%)	2mo	$220,000	$130	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-52,332
• Equity at exit: $35,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,679
• Equity at exit: $20,708

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,960/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $216,582

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	1d	1	0.19mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	4d	1	0.25mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	43d	1	0.26mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	20d	1	0.26mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	20d	1	0.53mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	1d	20	0.68mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.71mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	43d	1	0.72mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	24d	1	1.05mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	43d	1	1.47mi
35 Lakeview Vlg Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$3,000	$1.43	18d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,500 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,500 Pending 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,500 Pending 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,500 Pending 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,500 Pending 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,500 Pending 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,500 Pending 70 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,500 Pending 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   price $247,500 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. This 4 bedroom home is a rare find! Conveniently located just a stone's throw from Lake Conroe and just off of Hwy 105 for easy commuting. Step into the home and you are welcomed by an expansive flex room that could function as additional living space, dining room or anything your heart desires. Continue through to the kitchen and breakfast area boasting stainless steel gas range and island. Living room is accented by a cozy gas fireplace and tall ceilings. Primary suite has attached bath with jetted tub, walk-in shower, and double sinks. 3 additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a guests, home office, or craft room! Backyard is fully fenced and has mature trees for shade as well as a covered patio. Roof is only 18 months old. This home is move in ready!

10. 2026-04-23
    price $1,850
11. 2026-04-22
    price $253,500 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. This 4 bedroom home is a rare find! Conveniently located just a stone's throw from Lake Conroe and just off of Hwy 105 for easy commuting. Step into the home and you are welcomed by an expansive flex room that could function as additional living space, dining room or anything your heart desires. Continue through to the kitchen and breakfast area boasting stainless steel gas range and island. Living room is accented by a cozy gas fireplace and tall ceilings. Primary suite has attached bath with jetted tub, walk-in shower, and double sinks. 3 additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a guests, home office, or craft room! Backyard is fully fenced and has mature trees for shade as well as a covered patio. Roof is only 18 months old. This home is move in ready!

12. 2026-03-24
    listed $1,950
13. 2026-03-23
    listed $260,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. This 4 bedroom home is a rare find! Conveniently located just a stone's throw from Lake Conroe and just off of Hwy 105 for easy commuting. Step into the home and you are welcomed by an expansive flex room that could function as additional living space, dining room or anything your heart desires. Continue through to the kitchen and breakfast area boasting stainless steel gas range and island. Living room is accented by a cozy gas fireplace and tall ceilings. Primary suite has attached bath with jetted tub, walk-in shower, and double sinks. 3 additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a guests, home office, or craft room! Backyard is fully fenced and has mature trees for shade as well as a covered patio. Roof is only 18 months old. This home is move in ready!

14. 2024-10-22
    historical $1,950
15. 2024-10-22
    historical
16. 2024-10-07
    listed $1,950
17. 2024-10-02
    price $267,700
18. 2024-09-21
    listed $277,700 Active
19. 2014-10-13
    soldstatus
20. 2014-10-08
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2014-09-30
    status Pending
22. 2014-09-29
    price $157,000
23. 2014-08-26
    status Active
24. 2014-08-15
    status Option Pending
25. 2014-08-12
    listed $159,900 Active
26. 2007-03-14
    historical
27. 2006-12-19
    listed $159,000
28. 2002-07-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,960 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,960 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$4,960
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable loss: −$5,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $247,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $253,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $267,700 HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed $277,700 HARMLS
• 2014-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-09-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-09-29 Price Changed $157,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-12 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2007-03-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-12-19 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2002-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,960 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.