16810 Rocher Court Ct · Foley, AL 36535

$274,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,800 sqft lot Garage $183/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new construction in a fantastic Foley location! This beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is set on a private 5-acre fishing lake, offering peaceful waterfront views and a truly unique setting. The modern, single-story design features durable LVP flooring throughout, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances in a bright, open-concept layout with neutral tones. The kitchen includes white shaker cabinets, a large island, and plenty of space for entertaining. Spacious bedrooms and well-appointed baths, including a walk-in shower, provide comfort and functionality. Enjoy the convenience of a one-car garage, covered porch, and energy-efficient construction.

Key facts

• Waterfront views
• Large island
• Private fishing lake

Tags

• PRIVATE FISHING LAKE
• WATERFRONT VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• LARGE ISLAND
• DIRECT ACCESS TO STOCKED LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $230,816 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,382
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7624 Courant Circle Cir	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$296,581	$197	95
7587 Sable Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	1mo	$292,580	$195	93
7797 Courant Cir	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	4mo	$291,080	$194	89
7636 Courant Circle Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	2mo	$279,000	$198	85
7893 Courant Circle Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-5%)	2mo	$288,476	$202	78
7809 Courant Circle Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$275,388	$215	63
7541 Courant Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$263,000	$205	61
7747 Sable Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	6mo	$266,988	$208	61
17407 Harding Drive Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+6%)	0mo	$260,000	$163	56
17802 Lewis Smith Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (+8%)	4mo	$253,000	$156	55
17344 Harding Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (+7%)	5mo	$267,500	$166	54
17419 Lewis Smith Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (-5%)	3mo	$235,000	$165	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,311
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-69,252
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $286,540 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $256,620

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-32	+0% $-127	+5% $-222	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-218	+0% $-127	+5% $-36	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-57	base $-127	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16810 Rocher Ct Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	7d	1	0.02mi
7587 Sable Dr Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	32d	1	0.11mi
17163 Lanier Blvd Foley, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,850	$1.04	10d	1	0.40mi
7944 Pickwick Dr Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	2d	1	0.45mi
17419 Lewis Smith Dr Foley, AL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,800	$1.26	51d	1	0.67mi
7959 Mandalay Cir Foley, AL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1714	$2,450	$1.43	0d	9	0.77mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $600Association dues cover management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, and recreational facilitiesNo transfer feeNo listed community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Single covered garage space (detached/attached not specified)
• Utilities: Underground utilitiesRiviera Utilities serviceElectric service by Baldwin EMC
• Home design: Single-story homeResale propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Hardboard and wood frame constructionFortified-Gold construction standardComposition roofBuilt area reported as 1504 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchLess than 1 acre lotNo waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom with walk-in closetBedroom 2 approximately 13.2 x 12.2Bedroom 3 approximately 10.4 x 11.8Bedroom 4 approximately 12.1 x 11.8Primary bedroom approx. 13.2 x 13.6
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: UnfurnishedNo fireplaceGreat roomDining area open to kitchenSeparate shower in primary bath
• Laundry & utility: Has heating (heat pump)

HOA detail $50/mo · $600/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-30
   days on market $274,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-10-29
   days on market $274,990 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-10-28
   days on market $274,990 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-10-27
   days on market $274,990 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-10-26
   days on market $274,990 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-10-25
   days on market $274,990 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-10-24
   days on market $274,990 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-10-23
   days on market $274,990 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-10-22
   days on market $274,990 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-10-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-10-20
    days on market $274,990 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-10-19
    days on market $274,990 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-10-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-10-17
    days on market $274,990 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-10-16
    days on market $274,990 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-10-15
    days on market $274,990 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-10-14
    days on market $274,990 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-10-13
    price $274,990 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-10-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 173 DOM
20. 2026-10-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 172 DOM
21. 2026-10-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 171 DOM
22. 2026-10-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 170 DOM
23. 2026-10-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 169 DOM
24. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 168 DOM
25. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 167 DOM
26. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 166 DOM
27. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 165 DOM
28. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 164 DOM
29. 2026-10-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 163 DOM
30. 2026-10-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 162 DOM
31. 2026-10-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 161 DOM
32. 2026-09-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 160 DOM
33. 2026-09-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 159 DOM
34. 2026-09-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 158 DOM
35. 2026-09-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 157 DOM
36. 2026-09-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 156 DOM
37. 2026-09-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 155 DOM
38. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 154 DOM
39. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-09-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 152 DOM
41. 2026-09-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 151 DOM
42. 2026-09-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 150 DOM
43. 2026-09-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 149 DOM
44. 2026-09-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 148 DOM
45. 2026-09-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 147 DOM
46. 2026-09-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-09-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 145 DOM
48. 2026-09-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 144 DOM
49. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-09-13
    price $289,900 Active 142 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-26/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new construction home in Foley, AL offers a peaceful waterfront setting with modern design and energy-efficient features. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Foley Middle School F AL #172/257 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Foley High School F AL #118/305 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $600Association dues cover management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, and recreational facilitiesNo transfer feeNo listed community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Single covered garage space (detached/attached not specified)
• Utilities: Underground utilitiesRiviera Utilities serviceElectric service by Baldwin EMC
• Home design: Single-story homeResale propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Hardboard and wood frame constructionFortified-Gold construction standardComposition roofBuilt area reported as 1504 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchLess than 1 acre lotNo waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom with walk-in closetBedroom 2 approximately 13.2 x 12.2Bedroom 3 approximately 10.4 x 11.8Bedroom 4 approximately 12.1 x 11.8Primary bedroom approx. 13.2 x 13.6
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral electric cooling
• Interior features: UnfurnishedNo fireplaceGreat roomDining area open to kitchenSeparate shower in primary bath
• Laundry & utility: Has heating (heat pump)

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $299,900 BCAR
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-01-13 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $291,080 BCAR