820 S Chinowth St #74 · Visalia, CA 93277

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $128/sqft · 78% above area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful home features a large bright lot, open floor plan, new appliances, large double paned windows and hardwood cabinets. This beautiful home is located in the highly desired 55+ senior park of Country Manor.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Hardwood cabinets
• Large bright lot

Tags

• LARGE BRIGHT LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• LARGE DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Visalia Unified (urban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.67%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 77.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
820 S Chinowith Rd #76	0.00mi	2/1.0	660 (+6%)	8mo	$65,000	$98	83
820 S Chinowth Rd #101	0.00mi	2/1.0	576 (-8%)	11mo	$29,900	$52	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $26,337
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $74,930
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93277

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $637	+0% $609	+5% $581	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $551	+0% $609	+5% $667	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $649	-0.5pp $629	base $609	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 S Linwood St Unit 1540 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	44d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2023-12-11
    price $124,900
18. 2023-12-11
    price $124,900
19. 2023-12-11
    price $124,900
20. 2023-09-01
    status Active
21. 2023-08-25
    historical
22. 2023-08-25
    listed $129,900 Active
23. 2023-08-10
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 61% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,418
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $5,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully maintained mobile home in a highly desired senior park offers a fresh, modern interior with new appliances and flooring, and a well-maintained exterior with landscaping. Minor updates could further enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Visalia Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641160
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,672
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6223
• State rank: #273 of 517 in CA

Livability — Visalia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6351

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Visalia, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 163,333
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,985
• Household income: $80,548
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1896.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -371.43%
• Current HPI: 310.349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $124,900 KCBOR
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $124,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $124,900 TCMLS
• 2023-09-01 Relisted — TCMLS
• 2023-08-25 Delisted — TCMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $129,900 KCBOR
• 2023-08-10 Listed $129,900 TCMLS