809 Herbert St · Marshall, TX 75670

$155,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2011 6,534 sqft lot $85/sqft · 108% above area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom home built in 2011 that offers the perfect mix of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find two living areas, giving you flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or creating the perfect work-from-home setup. The home features custom arches and thoughtful design details that add warmth and personality throughout. The inviting front porch is the perfect place to unwind, while the functional layout makes everyday living easy with room for everyone. It is located just minutes from ETBU and right off Highway 80. Schedule your appointment to view this home today!

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Minutes from etbu
• Right off highway 80

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• CUSTOM ARCHES
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MINUTES FROM ETBU
• RIGHT OFF HIGHWAY 80

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Residential construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; 10 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#451 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall J H (math 30% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 1,105 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,682 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,690
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 107.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5883 N I-20 Service Rd E	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+5%)	1mo	$320,000	$168	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,765
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,510
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75670

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $223	+0% $179	+5% $135	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $122	+0% $179	+5% $236	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $218	base $179	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1103 Elm St Marshall, TX	3.0	1.0	1439	$1,662	$1.15	45d	1	0.46mi
1101 James Farmer St Marshall, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	15d	1	0.70mi
1509 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd Marshall, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$1,256	$0.96	45d	8	1.41mi
2707 Norwood St Marshall, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,290	$1.33	15d	16	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $155,000 Active 625-char remark
18. 2025-11-25
    price $155,000
19. 2025-10-21
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2025-08-28
    price $165,000
21. 2025-06-02
    price $175,000
22. 2025-05-02
    listed $185,000 Active
23. 2006-10-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,797/yr (+$150/mo · 172.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #9156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshall, TX
• County: Harrison County · 18,670 people
• City population: 18,670
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,670
• Household income: $42,386
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.33%
• Current HPI: 100.3741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $155,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $155,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-21 Listed $160,000 LAAR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $165,000 LAAR
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $175,000 LAAR
• 2025-05-02 Listed $185,000 LAAR
• 2006-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.