THE PALM Plan · Aledo, TX 76008

$441,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 308 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Palm plan is a two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, and a game room offering approximately 2,936 square feet of living space. The front porch and foyer leads to an open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The kitchen includes an island with beautiful quartz countertops, built-in stainless steel appliances, built-in gas cooktop, and a walk-in corner pantry. The spacious private main bedroom is located off the family room and features an attractive ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower with seat, garden soaking tub, linen, and walk-in closets. The covered patio is located off the dining room. All secondary bedrooms and second full bathroom are located at the front of the house off the foyer and upstairs. The separate utility room and mud bench are located just off the garage entry with additional walk-in storage space under the stairs. Front elevations offer a covered front porch, or stone detail options. Additional features include: 8' Stained Entry Door, 10' First Floor Ceiling Height (per plan), Tankless Gas Water Heater; Revwood flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility, and Bathrooms; full yard sod, landscaping, and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package with an industry-leading suite of smart home products.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered patio
• Gas cooking range

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• WALK-IN CORNER PANTRY
• LUXURY WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

🏗️ New construction. The $441,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $533,217.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $442k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-970 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Aledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#328 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,686 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,217
• List price: $441,990
• Delta: -17.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14904 Gentry Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,004 (+2%)	1mo	$499,000	$166	71
200 Welch Folly Ln	0.24mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,091 (+5%)	3mo	$560,000	$181	71
15212 Everly Ct	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,122 (+6%)	3mo	$485,000	$155	69
120 Crimson Sky Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,718 (-7%)	2mo	$350,000	$129	68
15113 Devonne Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,918 (-1%)	3mo	$449,000	$154	67
417 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,850 (-3%)	1mo	$449,000	$158	60
15068 Green Bluff Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,861 (-3%)	2mo	$504,900	$176	59
321 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,137 (+7%)	3mo	$455,000	$145	55
15165 Ram Rock Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,984 (+2%)	3mo	$449,990	$151	54
14941 Gentry Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,568 (-12%)	3mo	$480,000	$187	54
15057 Ram Rock Dr	0.66mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+8%)	1mo	$468,080	$148	54
701 Soaring Hawk Dr	0.68mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+8%)	2mo	$466,560	$147	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-145,262
• Equity at exit: $79,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-193,890
• Equity at exit: $46,103

Cash invested: $149,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $458,580 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,796
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$667 /mo · $7,998/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,664

Max offer price $392,882

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-601	-5% $-786	+0% $-970	+5% $-1,154	+10% $-1,338
Rent	-10% $-1,241	-5% $-1,106	+0% $-970	+5% $-834	+10% $-698
Rate	-1.0pp $-701	-0.5pp $-834	base $-970	+0.5pp $-1,108	+1.0pp $-1,249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,304
• Closing costs: $15,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15105 Stargazer Dr Unit O15105 Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3141	$3,595	$1.14	34d	1	0.18mi
15229 Holly Bay Ct Aledo, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,801	$1.36	68d	1	0.20mi
228 Open Sky Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2555	$3,395	$1.33	41d	1	0.26mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,236	$1.23	4d	1	0.28mi
14829 Star Creek Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3050	$3,580	$1.17	82d	1	0.33mi
14824 Brettridge Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2782	$3,321	$1.19	139d	1	0.35mi
14848 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	74d	1	0.37mi
253 Gill Point Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2858	$3,650	$1.28	101d	1	0.37mi
14825 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3128	$3,600	$1.15	94d	1	0.40mi
15013 Gladstone Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2820	$3,046	$1.08	12d	1	0.40mi
144 Peace Pl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2780	$3,395	$1.22	6d	1	0.43mi
14800 Belclaire Ave Aledo, TX	5.0	3.0	3207	$3,500	$1.09	40d	1	0.45mi
15129 Ram Rock Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$3,500	$1.64	48d	1	0.70mi
14328 Capridge Rd Aledo, TX	4.0	4.5	3509	$5,000	$1.42	97d	1	1.12mi
1617 Purple Thistle Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3164	$4,150	$1.31	0d	1	1.12mi
2013 Tolleson Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2687	$3,495	$1.30	18d	1	1.18mi
2165 Sandlin Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$3,825	$1.43	139d	1	1.24mi
1905 Barbette St Aledo, TX	4.0	4.0	3725	$5,250	$1.41	63d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $441,990 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $441,990 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $441,990 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $441,990 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $441,990 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $441,990 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $441,990 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $441,990 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $441,990 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $441,990 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $441,990 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $441,990 Active 297 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $441,990 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $441,990 Active 295 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $436,990 Active 289 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $436,990 Active 288 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $436,990 Active 286 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $436,990 Active 284 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $436,990 Active 282 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $436,990 Active 281 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $436,990 Active 280 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $436,990 Active 279 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $436,990 Active 278 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $436,990 Active 277 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $436,990 Active 276 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $436,990 Active 275 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $436,990 Active 274 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $436,990 Active 273 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $436,990 Active 272 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $436,990 Active 271 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $436,990 Active 270 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $436,990 Active 269 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $436,990 Active 268 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $436,990 Active 267 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $436,990 Active 266 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $436,990 Active 265 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $436,990 Active 264 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $436,990 Active 263 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $436,990 Active 262 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $436,990 Active 261 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $436,990 Active 259 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $436,990 Active 258 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $436,990 Active 257 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $436,990 Active 256 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $436,990 Active 253 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $436,990 Active 252 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $436,990 Active 251 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $436,990 Active 250 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $436,990 Active 248 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $436,990 Active 246 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,868
• − Property taxes: −$7,998
• − Insurance: −$2,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,299
• − Management: −$3,299
• − Depreciation: −$15,512
• Taxable loss: −$21,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home in The Palm plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern amenities, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the home's curb appeal and energy-efficient features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Reduces energy costs and enhances home value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 67/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mccall El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Aledo Middle A TX #57/1,662 Nat'l #797/14,009 High Aledo H S B TX #147/1,632 Nat'l #2,426/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aledo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #7200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 147,426 people
• City population: 25,165
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $433,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $430,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Listed $425,990 Zillow