3478 Sunset Ln · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1994 0.33 ac lot Est $285k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,749 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3478 Sunset Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$96	99
2488 Oakwood Drive Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	11mo	$310,000	$202	70
3630 Rainbow Lake Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	2mo	$257,500	$177	68
4242 Yuma Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,647 (+5%)	1mo	$630,000	$383	64
3532 Sunset Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	8mo	$235,000	$175	63
2702 Lazy River Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (-7%)	4mo	$297,200	$204	58
3267 Petes Retreat Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	12mo	$280,000	$182	56
3489 Rainbow Lake Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,700 (+8%)	12mo	$158,650	$93	55
3315 Harmony Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+3%)	12mo	$395,000	$245	47
2066 Hideaway Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	13mo	$305,000	$182	45
2244 Oakwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+14%)	16mo	$264,000	$148	40
3092 Deer Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	18mo	$200,000	$149	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,220
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,320
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $758/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $152	+0% $96	+5% $40	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $32	+0% $96	+5% $160	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $147	base $96	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-09-27
   price $219,000
2. 2025-09-02
   price $240,000
3. 2025-08-21
   price $250,000
4. 2025-07-11
   price $260,000
5. 2021-12-27
   soldstatus $229,000 Closed 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

6. 2021-12-23
   soldstatus $229,000
7. 2021-12-08
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

8. 2021-11-30
   status Active 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

9. 2021-11-03
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

10. 2021-10-30
    price $235,000 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

11. 2021-10-29
    price $325,000 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

12. 2021-10-27
    status Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

13. 2021-10-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

14. 2021-10-06
    listed $229,000 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Updated Remodeled 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes. Gourmet Kitchen, Newer Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, Custom Tile Backsplash, New Lighting and Plumbing Fixtures. Kitchen leads out to Great Room with New Plank Vinyl Floor and Plenty of Windows. Master Bedroom has New Flooring the Master Bath has His and Her Sinks, Soaking Tub with New Plumbing and Lighting Fixtures. Located on Large Quiet Lot near Rainbow and Show Low Lakes, Easy Access to Town and Highway.

15. 2020-12-07
    soldstatus $125,000
16. 2017-11-14
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 73.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$758
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $1,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+65.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $219,000 WMMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $240,000 WMMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $250,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $260,000 WMMLS
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) $229,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-11-30 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-10-30 Price Changed $235,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Listed $229,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $758 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.