12359 Lookout Loop Unit F12-22 · Truckee, CA 96161

$12,500

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · Timeshare · 336 Days on market

$5/sqft · 29% below area Est $18k · 29% under $769/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm of this beautifully updated 3-bedroom cabin in Old Greenwood, thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility. The home features a versatile office with a built-in Murphy bed, ideal for accommodating additional guests. This 1/17th shared ownership includes a highly desirable primary week—Week 22 (May 30–June 5)—along with additional floating weeks for added convenience and use throughout the year. As an owner, you’ll enjoy exclusive membership in the Tahoe Mountain Club, offering access to two championship golf courses, a private shuttle to Northstar, an owners-only Village lounge, and a members-only on-mountain restaurant. Additional benefits include independent guest check-in and access to the Space Available program, allowing easy booking of Flex, mid-week, and last-minute stays.

Key facts

• Updated cabin
• Versatile office
• Built-in murphy bed

Tags

• UPDATED CABIN
• VERSATILE OFFICE
• BUILT-IN MURPHY BED
• PRIVATE SHUTTLE
• INDEPENDENT GUEST CHECK-IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath timeshare listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 489.5% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,454/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $86 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $375 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $11,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 59.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 489.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 1725.81%
• DSCR: 77.79
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,659
• List price: $12,500
• Delta: -29.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 100.16×
• Total profit: $347,049
• Equity at exit: $1,864

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 241.19×
• Total profit: $840,653
• Equity at exit: $1,081

Cash invested: $3,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$66
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$769
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,565
• Net cashflow: $5,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $12,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,042	-5% $5,038	+0% $5,034	+5% $5,029	+10% $5,025
Rent	-10% $4,445	-5% $4,739	+0% $5,034	+5% $5,328	+10% $5,623
Rate	-1.0pp $5,040	-0.5pp $5,037	base $5,034	+0.5pp $5,030	+1.0pp $5,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,125
• Closing costs: $375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	1.06mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	1.06mi
10085 Nicolas Dr Unit A Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1871	$5,500	$2.94	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $769 · $9,228/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,500 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,500 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,500 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,500 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $12,500 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $12,500 Active 328 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,500 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,500 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $12,500 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $12,500 Active 322 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $12,500 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $12,500 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,500 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,500 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $12,500 Active 317 DOM
16. 2025-07-14
    listed $18,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Experience the charm of this beautifully updated 3-bedroom cabin in Old Greenwood, thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility. The home features a versatile office with a built-in Murphy bed, ideal for accommodating additional guests. This 1/17th shared ownership includes a highly desirable primary week—Week 22 (May 30–June 5)—along with additional floating weeks for added convenience and use throughout the year. As an owner, you’ll enjoy exclusive membership in the Tahoe Mountain Club, offering access to two championship golf courses, a private shuttle to Northstar, an owners-only Village lounge, and a members-only on-mountain restaurant. Additional benefits include independent guest check-in and access to the Space Available program, allowing easy booking of Flex, mid-week, and last-minute stays.

17. 2025-03-14
    soldstatus $13,000 Sold 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Enjoy an annual luxury early summer break at Old Greenwood without the expense of full ownership. With fractional ownership, you are guaranteed the 22nd week (May 30th - June 6th) each year in a stunning golf-course home. Owners also benefit from additional flexible time and spontaneous usage opportunities. All maintenance and upkeep are included, along with a membership to the Tahoe Mountain Club. This membership provides access to year-round activities and amenities both on-site and at Northstar, including a pool and fitness center, spa, golf, and a ski lounge. The floating week for 2025 is April 18-25th, and a floating mid-week is scheduled for September 29th - October 3rd.

18. 2025-03-05
    status Pending 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Enjoy an annual luxury early summer break at Old Greenwood without the expense of full ownership. With fractional ownership, you are guaranteed the 22nd week (May 30th - June 6th) each year in a stunning golf-course home. Owners also benefit from additional flexible time and spontaneous usage opportunities. All maintenance and upkeep are included, along with a membership to the Tahoe Mountain Club. This membership provides access to year-round activities and amenities both on-site and at Northstar, including a pool and fitness center, spa, golf, and a ski lounge. The floating week for 2025 is April 18-25th, and a floating mid-week is scheduled for September 29th - October 3rd.

19. 2025-02-03
    listed $15,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Enjoy an annual luxury early summer break at Old Greenwood without the expense of full ownership. With fractional ownership, you are guaranteed the 22nd week (May 30th - June 6th) each year in a stunning golf-course home. Owners also benefit from additional flexible time and spontaneous usage opportunities. All maintenance and upkeep are included, along with a membership to the Tahoe Mountain Club. This membership provides access to year-round activities and amenities both on-site and at Northstar, including a pool and fitness center, spa, golf, and a ski lounge. The floating week for 2025 is April 18-25th, and a floating mid-week is scheduled for September 29th - October 3rd.

20. 2023-01-07
    price $18,500
21. 2022-06-07
    price $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$700
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$62
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,156
• − Management: −$7,156
• − HOA: −$9,228
• − Depreciation: −$364
• Taxable income: $64,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,504
• After-tax cash flow: $44,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Listed $18,000 TSMLS
• 2025-03-14 Sold (MLS) $13,000 TSMLS
• 2025-03-05 Pending — TSMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $15,000 TSMLS
• 2023-01-07 Price Changed $18,500 TSMLS
• 2022-06-07 Price Changed $30,000 TSMLS