2430 Merida Cir · The Villages, FL 32162

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1999 5,490 sqft lot Est $281k · 9% under $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET AFTER RENOVATION!! * * MOVE-IN READY | BOND PAID | MAJOR UPDATES DONE * * Welcome to this * * fantastic 2BR/2BA Floorplan * * in The Villages, where comfort, convenience, and peace of mind come together! With a * * NEW ROOF (2022) * * and * * NEW HVAC (2024) * * , this home offers the kind of big-ticket upgrades buyers are looking for. Step inside to a bright, inviting layout and continue into the * * GLASS-ENCLOSED LANAI * * , a true highlight of the home—complete with sliding glass windows, shades, ceiling fans, and low-maintenance vinyl flooring in the wet areas and like-new carpet in the living room and both bedrooms. It’s the perfect

Key facts

• Glass-enclosed lanai
• New hvac
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• GLASS-ENCLOSED LANAI
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Community mailbox; Dog park; Fitness center; Golf carts allowed; Golf; Pool; Tennis courts; Street lights; Irrigation - reclaimed water; Senior community; Dogs allowed; Total monthly fees approximately $204; Total annual fees approximately $2,448

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler on recycled water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: Galveston; Built as residential
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Metered sprinkler system; Irrigation equipment; Public maintained paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 61 x 90

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters; Split-bedroom layout; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,853/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $255k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1638 Duran Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,179 (-6%)	3mo	$253,000	$215	71
2604 Privada Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (-3%)	0mo	$269,000	$222	70
1216 Chaparral Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,239 (-1%)	3mo	$292,000	$236	69
1410 Almanza Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,174 (-6%)	2mo	$305,000	$260	65
1612 Campos Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-10%)	0mo	$230,000	$205	62
1428 Almanza Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,174 (-6%)	3mo	$299,900	$255	62
2632 Moncayo Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,143 (-8%)	2mo	$220,000	$192	56
1647 Campos Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$223	56
2603 Olivarez Way	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-10%)	2mo	$252,000	$225	53
2005 Claudio Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,389 (+11%)	0mo	$317,000	$228	53
2670 Privada Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+12%)	0mo	$307,450	$221	45
1148 Chaparral Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+12%)	0mo	$465,000	$334	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,846
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $24,933
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,190/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $412	+0% $340	+5% $268	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $228	+0% $340	+5% $453	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $405	base $340	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	0.66mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	0.80mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	0.88mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	0.93mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	0.93mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	1.09mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	1.17mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	1.22mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	1.24mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	1.28mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.38mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	22d	1	1.45mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	22d	10	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $255,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-05-23
   status Active
10. 2026-05-23
    price $255,000
11. 2026-04-29
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-25
    listed $245,000 Active
13. 2000-11-30
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,190 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,190 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,190
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34
• After-tax cash flow: $4,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+112.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,190 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.