3107 N 16th St · Tampa, FL 33605

$289,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1925 4,900 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FABULOUS NEWLY RENOVATED HOME!!! Upgrades include hardwood floors, tiles in all wet areas, maple cabinetry with crown moldings, granite coutertops in kitchen and baths with brand new fixtures, brand new appliances. High ceiling with open split floor plan. This charming home is move in ready complete with a backyard porch overlooking a spacious fenced in private backyard. Ideally located in walking distance from schools, parks and minutes to downtown area. There's no one like it in this area, THIS IS A MUSTSEE!!!Seller will assist with closing cost with reasonable offer.

Key facts

• Tampa home
• 4,900 sq ft lot
• Built 1925

Tags

• TAMPA HOME
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RS-50
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Water: See remarks; Sewer: Other; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.11 acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,029/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,869 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $133,082
• Equity at exit: $261,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $398,744
• Equity at exit: $563,404

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,303/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $234,490

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	24d	1	0.07mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	2d	1	0.08mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	21d	1	0.08mi
3005 Sanchez St Unit 5 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	2d	1	0.10mi
2909 N 17th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	21d	1	0.18mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	24d	1	0.22mi
2907 N 15th St Unit D Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	888	$1,850	$2.08	4d	1	0.22mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	12d	1	0.25mi
1607 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	869	$2,600	$2.99	12d	1	0.27mi
1302 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,408	$1.76	4d	9	0.29mi
1605 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	870	$1,800	$2.07	20d	1	0.31mi
1212 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,490	$1.44	19d	1	0.33mi
3411 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	978	$1,895	$1.94	24d	1	0.35mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	4d	1	0.35mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	3d	1	0.35mi
1716 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	24d	1	0.35mi
2002 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1084	$2,400	$2.21	4d	1	0.40mi
1211 E 18th Ave Unit 2 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	725	$1,800	$2.48	17d	1	0.41mi
2006 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,495	$1.67	1d	1	0.44mi
1515 E 31st Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,500	$1.64	4d	1	0.45mi
1221 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	24d	1	0.46mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.47mi
1105 E 28th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,525	$2.05	4d	1	0.48mi
1003 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,639	$1.54	4d	1	0.48mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	24d	1	0.49mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	24d	1	0.49mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	4d	1	0.50mi
1006 E 26th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,630	$1.63	4d	1	0.51mi
1305 E Louise Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,700	$1.95	24d	1	0.55mi
3511 Cone Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,200	$1.75	4d	1	0.57mi
912 E Saint Clair St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	0.57mi
1003 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1160	$1,795	$1.55	1d	1	0.60mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	13d	1	0.60mi
2407 E 17th Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	810	$1,650	$2.04	17d	1	0.60mi
2407 E 17th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	810	$1,650	$2.04	24d	1	0.60mi
2407 E 17th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	810	$1,650	$2.04	21d	1	0.60mi
2407 E 17th Ave Apt A Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	810	$1,650	$2.04	14d	1	0.60mi
2407 E 17th Ave Apt A Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	810	$1,595	$1.97	10d	1	0.60mi
1504 E 33rd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,900	$2.62	24d	1	0.61mi
2308 E 15th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,895	$2.02	14d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 625-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $289,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$3,303
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1771.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-28 Rental Removed $1,790 RENTLY
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $1,790 RENTLY
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $1,870 RENTLY
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $1,895 RENTLY
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $1,995 RENTLY
• 2024-02-07 Price Changed $2,095 RENTLY
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent $2,145 RENTLY
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $2,145 RENTLY
• 2023-08-23 Price Changed $2,145 RENTLY
• 2023-08-16 Price Changed $2,185 RENTLY
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $2,195 RENTLY
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $2,220 RENTLY
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed $2,245 RENTLY
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,092,534 Public Records
• 2009-08-28 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-20 Listed $59,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-18 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-23 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-25 Listed $121,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-16 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,303 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.