11694 N 166th Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$375,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2017 3,530 sqft lot $164/sqft · 6% below area Est $399k · 6% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11694 N 166th Dr, a residence featuring partial flooring replacement. The interior layout includes a kitchen island and all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom features double sinks. Exterior areas consist of a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Fenced in backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,252 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,073
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11694 N 166th Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,284 (0%)	1mo	$359,000	$157	98
16514 W Mescal St	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,348 (+3%)	1mo	$500,000	$213	78
16828 W Shangri LA Rd	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,358 (+3%)	2mo	$489,990	$208	70
16831 W Shangri LA Rd	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,358 (+3%)	2mo	$489,360	$208	68
10903 N 164th Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,229 (-2%)	1mo	$500,000	$224	64
10935 N 164th Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,224 (-3%)	2mo	$528,990	$238	64
16933 W Sierra St	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,467 (+8%)	3mo	$589,990	$239	63
16643 W Yucatan Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,614 (+14%)	2mo	$452,000	$173	60
17032 W Hope Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,132 (-7%)	0mo	$512,990	$241	56
16267 W Yucatan Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,045 (-10%)	2mo	$429,000	$210	48
11715 N Luckenbach St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,948 (-15%)	1mo	$608,000	$312	43
17051 W Hope Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,970 (-14%)	2mo	$499,990	$254	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-39,872
• Equity at exit: $114,249

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-42,225
• Equity at exit: $141,688

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,507/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $301,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-313	+0% $-419	+5% $-525	+10% $-631
Rent	-10% $-612	-5% $-515	+0% $-419	+5% $-322	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-323	base $-419	+0.5pp $-516	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16579 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,100	$0.92	25d	1	0.04mi
16576 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2270	$2,450	$1.08	25d	1	0.05mi
16668 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,150	$0.94	6d	1	0.09mi
16453 W Yucatan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2375	$2,295	$0.97	6d	1	0.29mi
16657 W Mescal St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,899	$1.19	25d	1	0.29mi
16805 W Shangri La Rd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1960	$2,500	$1.28	25d	1	0.42mi
16264 W Canterbury Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1967	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	0.43mi
16664 W Christy Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,600	$1.36	19d	1	0.53mi
16198 W Hope Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	12d	1	0.62mi
10960 N 162nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	15d	1	0.62mi
16221 W Mercer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2649	$2,395	$0.90	25d	1	0.70mi
17168 W Rocklin St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$5,000	$2.50	25d	1	0.73mi
17141 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1862	$4,200	$2.26	44d	1	0.77mi
15912 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	3348	$2,995	$0.89	4d	1	0.81mi
17226 W Edinburg St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2001	$3,950	$1.97	15d	1	0.84mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	22d	1	0.94mi
15843 W Desert Mirage Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2531	$2,599	$1.03	3d	1	0.95mi
17279 W Dahlia Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1972	$3,300	$1.67	13d	1	1.13mi
17494 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	2001	$3,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.18mi
12480 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,600	$1.29	19d	1	1.20mi
15481 W Cameron Cir Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,500	$1.30	44d	1	1.33mi
16223 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.39mi
15425 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$1,800	$1.02	13d	1	1.44mi
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	21d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Welcome to 11694 N 166th Dr, a residence featuring partial flooring replacement. The interior layout includes a kitchen island and all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom features double sinks. Exterior areas consist of a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

2. 2026-05-04
   status Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Welcome to 11694 N 166th Dr, a residence featuring partial flooring replacement. The interior layout includes a kitchen island and all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom features double sinks. Exterior areas consist of a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Welcome to 11694 N 166th Dr, a residence featuring partial flooring replacement. The interior layout includes a kitchen island and all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom features double sinks. Exterior areas consist of a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

4. 2026-03-17
   listed $375,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Welcome to 11694 N 166th Dr, a residence featuring partial flooring replacement. The interior layout includes a kitchen island and all stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom features double sinks. Exterior areas consist of a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. Don't miss the opportunity to own this beautiful home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

5. 2026-03-11
   soldstatus $364,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,507 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 64.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,507
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $364,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,507 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.