2757 Marvin Hollow Rd · Walton, NY 13856

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1980 3.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a hillside location on a quiet country road, surrounded by nature and mountain views, this recently-renovated home offers privacy, serenity, and modern comfort on 3.2 acres. The house has received many recent upgrades including insulation, mini-split heating and cooling, updated windows and doors, new flooring and ceilings, plus a completely NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM installed in 2025 (sized for a three-bedroom dwelling). Additional features include a wood-burning stove, screened-in porch, back deck, and garage with electricity and workbench. Originally a three-bedroom home, the current layout is configured with a spacious open-plan living, dining, kitchen area plus one light-filled bedr

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• New septic system
• Recently renovated

Tags

• HILLSIDE LOCATION
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (total 4 parking spaces); 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Septic tank; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Mobile home on owned land
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Partially wooded lot; Sloped lot; Stone or brick wall; Scenic views; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 rooms (bedroom count not separately specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; High-speed internet; Covered porch and deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Walton Central School District (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #510 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 367 students, 47% FRL); Walton Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 189 students, 54% FRL); Walton High School (math 84% / reading 90%, grade A, #308 of 1,100 statewide, top 28%, 283 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $119k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.37%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $84,858
• Equity at exit: $73,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $209,361
• Equity at exit: $131,551

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13856

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $119,000 Active
10. 2025-09-09
    historical
11. 2025-08-12
    listed $164,000 Active
12. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 82.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$1,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $8,368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,008
• After-tax cash flow: $7,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629820
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,231
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5088
• State rank: #510 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,915

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.79%
• Current HPI: 331.9799
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+296.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $164,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · -41.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.