Lancia's Lincoln III Plan · New Haven, IN 46774

$230,200

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Good condition $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Lincoln III showcases a U-shaped Kitchen open to the Nook with a corner pantry. Large separate Great Room. Separate Laundry Room off Garage. 4 Bedrooms upstairs with the option of transforming the downstairs Office or Bonus Room into a 5th Bedroom with an upgrade of a closet or suite with a full bath!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 443 days

🏗️ New construction. The $230,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,508.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#149 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Intermediate School (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #727 of 994 statewide, top 73%, 589 students, 64% FRL); New Haven Jr/Sr High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #263 of 369 statewide, top 72%, 1,494 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 304 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,576 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,508
• List price: $230,200
• Delta: -16.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10247 Erwin Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,713 (-1%)	3mo	$290,000	$169	86
3559 Canal Square Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (+6%)	2mo	$264,700	$144	76
3561 Canal Square Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (+6%)	2mo	$264,700	$144	76
10585 Slate Run	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,812 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$141	74
3832 Sun Stone Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (+8%)	2mo	$300,000	$160	72
9678 Pawnee Way	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,741 (+0%)	2mo	$201,412	$116	68
9518 Sweetwater Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,679 (-3%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	66
4146 Centerstone Pkwy	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,956 (+13%)	1mo	$349,500	$179	62
4369 Fenwick Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,684 (-3%)	2mo	$269,000	$160	61
1225 Lawn Ave	0.59mi	4/1.5	1,844 (+6%)	4mo	$180,000	$98	54
1720 Douglas Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,978 (+14%)	4mo	$281,000	$142	49
10432 Chesterhills Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-14%)	4mo	$269,900	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-65,326
• Equity at exit: $41,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-83,386
• Equity at exit: $23,821

Cash invested: $77,142 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $255,000 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 443 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46774

• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,133/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $228,415

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-230	+0% $-325	+5% $-421	+10% $-516
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-406	+0% $-325	+5% $-245	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-255	base $-325	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,877
• Closing costs: $8,265
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3667 Victoria Lakes Ct New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,595	$1.22	0d	1	0.06mi
3589 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,495	$1.04	0d	1	0.12mi
3599 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$2,295	$1.25	162d	1	0.16mi
3559 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	46d	1	0.20mi
3561 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	18d	1	0.20mi
3556 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	16d	1	0.20mi
3591 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	1.5	1467	$1,695	$1.16	184d	1	0.20mi
3565 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,895	$1.03	46d	1	0.20mi
10390 Silver Rock Chase New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	184d	1	0.33mi
3612 Kirklynn Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,950	$1.51	9d	1	0.43mi
9668 Pinepark Pass New Haven, IN	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	24d	1	0.85mi
4309 Silver Birch Cv New Haven, IN	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $230,200 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $230,200 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $230,200 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $230,200 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $230,200 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,200 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,200 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,200 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $230,200 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $230,200 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $230,200 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $230,200 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $230,200 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $230,200 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $230,200 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $230,200 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $230,200 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $230,200 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $230,200 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $230,200 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $230,200 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $230,200 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $230,200 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $230,200 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $230,200 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $230,200 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $230,200 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $230,200 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $230,200 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $230,200 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $230,200 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $230,200 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $230,200 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $230,200 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $230,200 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $230,200 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $230,200 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $230,200 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $230,200 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $230,200 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $230,200 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $230,200 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $230,200 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $230,200 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $230,200 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $230,200 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $230,200 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $230,200 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $230,200 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $230,200 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,433
• − Property taxes: −$4,133
• − Insurance: −$1,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$8,015
• Taxable loss: −$8,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,111
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Haven Primary School High New Haven Jr/sr High School F IN #263/369 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,524
• Composite: 35.75/100
• National rank: #4849
• State rank: #122 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #7499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, IN
• County: Allen · 394,020 people
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,066
• Household income: $70,758
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.27%
• Current HPI: 241.5333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $225,700 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $224,000 Zillow