200 W Burkholder Dr Lot 12 · Clay, PA 17543

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 $125/sqft · 66% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

🏡 BRAND NEW SUPERIOR HOMES SPEC HOME – ORDER TODAY! 🏡 Lititz PA Manufactured Home Community next to beautiful farm land and scenic views! Step inside to a bright and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring brand-new appliances, ample cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. The well-designed floor plan offers comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and energy-efficient construction for peace of mind and affordable living. Enjoy the benefits of brand-new construction along with manufacturer warranties. Monthly lot rent is $450 and includes water, sewer, trash, and snow removal. Drive by and check out this beautiful homesite to see if this could be the p

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• Scenic views
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• ENERGY EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• WELL MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Irrigation water rights noted; Annual ground rent listed under income/expense
• Financial info: Ownership interest listed as ground rent
• HOA & community: Community fees include water, trash, and snow removal; Ground rent exists ($450 monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Propane available; On-site septic; Private/community water; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide (14' x 52'); Champion make; Construction completed; excellent condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Architectural shingle roof; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Not in a federal flood zone; 2+ access exits

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (leased and/or owned options noted); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry area with hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 0.8% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,137 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ephrata Area SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #173 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.66%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,241
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 72.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $30,423
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $84,494
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17543

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $89,900 1092-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $84,900 Active 1092-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,797
• After-tax cash flow: $6,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ephrata Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209270
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,320
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3078
• State rank: #173 of 539 in PA

Livability — Clay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #13048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,912
• Household income: $97,435
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1164.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.22%
• Current HPI: 265.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $85 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.