15060 Willowwood Dr · Tyler, TX 75703

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 0.36 ac lot Est $382k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home to be sold as is

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Tags

• KNOLLWOOD SUBDIVISION
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LEGACY TRAILS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete parking
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($676/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Bryan C Jack El (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 685 students, 46% FRL); Three Lakes Middle (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 873 students, 64% FRL); Tyler Legacy H S (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,594 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,695 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,888
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7276 Carthage Crk	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,947 (+10%)	2mo	$419,900	$216	48
7294 Carthage Crk	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,954 (+10%)	16mo	$400,000	$205	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,598
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-71,075
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75703

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,106/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $141	+0% $56	+5% $-28	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-48	+0% $56	+5% $161	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $132	base $56	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10801 Harvestwood Dr Tyler, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$3,750	$1.91	15d	1	0.28mi
1811 Spruce Pine Ln Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.99mi
15542 County Road 178 Unit I209 Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	45d	1	1.00mi
7352 Kingsport Ln Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1875	$4,500	$2.40	15d	1	1.09mi
16108 Echo Glen Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,795	$1.47	45d	1	1.16mi
11201 County Road 166 Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,595	$1.59	45d	1	1.29mi
2830 W Grande Blvd Tyler, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,370	$2.03	15d	30	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $299,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $299,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,106 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,366/yr (+$114/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,106
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,039
• Household income: $79,194
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1585.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.79%
• Current HPI: 182.3842
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $299,000 GTAR
• 2023-04-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-01-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $254,900 NTREIS
• 2022-11-29 Price Changed $274,900 NTREIS
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2022-11-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-09-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2017-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-25 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-01-12 Listed $165,900 GTAR
• 2014-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-04 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2014-01-27 Listed $124,900 GTAR
• 2007-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,106 · -22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.