56 W Donellan Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$839,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1956 10,019 sqft lot Est $1078k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a peaceful dead-end street well south of Montauk Highway, this hidden gem is the kind of opportunity buyers patiently wait for. Just minutes from both the ocean and bay beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an ideal mix of location, potential, and privacy-positioned perfectly for the next chapter. Set on a generous parcel, the home features an in-ground pool and a detached two-car garage-an excellent candidate for accessory space conversion. Whether you envision a serene personal retreat, a high-performing rental, or a full-time residence, the possibilities here are as endless as the summer sky. Surrounded by the rhythm and beauty of nature-where days begin with sal

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Generous parcel
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• GENEROUS PARCEL
• PEACEFUL DEAD-END STREET
• MINUTES FROM OCEAN BEACHES
• MINUTES FROM BAY BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $839k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($37k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $839k).
• Recommended offer: $763k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $235k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($763k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $839k implies a 639% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $763,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.70%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,077,654
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
79 School St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-3%)	1mo	$900,000	$529	65
60 School St	0.46mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-3%)	6mo	$775,000	$456	63
14C Penny Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+1%)	6mo	$1,790,000	$1,007	60
19 Shinnecock Rd	0.45mi	4/4.0	1,656 (-6%)	2mo	$1,585,000	$957	60
34 Shinnecock Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,650 (-6%)	11mo	$1,440,000	$873	56
11 Staller Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,626 (-8%)	12mo	$998,000	$614	54
50 School St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-5%)	15mo	$850,000	$508	53
4A Last	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,623 (-8%)	8mo	$2,400,000	$1,479	46
65 Palo Alto Dr	0.32mi	4/4.0	2,000 (+14%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$550	44
88 Lynn Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-1%)	17mo	$830,000	$478	43
25 Lynncliff Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,530 (-13%)	15mo	$825,100	$539	38
8 Higbee Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (+14%)	16mo	$1,225,000	$613	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $115,594
• Equity at exit: $125,098

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $606,858
• Equity at exit: $72,541

Cash invested: $234,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,400
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,551/yr
• Insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,224
• Net cashflow: $3,073

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,703

Max offer price $839,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $209,750
• Closing costs: $25,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	1.0	2226	$30,000	$13.48	17d	1	0.18mi
23 N Westbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2212	$12,000	$5.42	24d	1	0.21mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.22mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$5,600	$3.48	18d	1	0.25mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.29mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	43d	1	0.39mi
8 Westerly Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	24d	1	0.41mi
8 Wakeman Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1932	$11,000	$5.69	24d	1	0.46mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	43d	1	0.48mi
6 White Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	4.5	2458	$20,000	$8.14	24d	1	0.50mi
55A Shinnecock Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$57,500	$25.00	24d	1	0.53mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	18d	1	0.63mi
35 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2221	$15,000	$6.75	17d	1	0.65mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.66mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,445	$4.30	2d	1	0.68mi
3 Harbor Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	2.5	2500	$25,000	$10.00	7d	1	0.73mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	0.74mi
9 Tramposh Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	5d	1	0.77mi
129 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$18,000	$9.00	17d	1	0.78mi
81 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	1664	$25,000	$15.02	43d	1	0.84mi
41 Cormorant Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1874	$25,000	$13.34	18d	1	0.89mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	43d	1	0.92mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	24d	1	0.94mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	18d	1	0.95mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.09mi
10 Ginny Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2596	$30,000	$11.56	24d	1	1.09mi
16 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$8,000	$3.48	15d	1	1.12mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	1.18mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$69,000	$26.40	24d	1	1.28mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	18d	1	1.30mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	20d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-11-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-21
   listed $839,000 Active
3. 2025-01-19
   status Active
4. 2024-10-19
   status Pending
5. 2024-09-12
   listed $719,000 Active
6. 2024-08-30
   historical
7. 2024-07-02
   price $729,000
8. 2024-06-12
   price $779,000
9. 2024-04-19
   status Active
10. 2024-04-10
    historical
11. 2024-02-17
    status Active
12. 2023-11-29
    price $799,000
13. 2023-11-15
    historical
14. 2023-11-14
    listed $829,000 Active
15. 2023-11-14
    listed $829,000 Active
16. 1998-12-07
    soldstatus $113,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,551 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,365 · $864/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,814/yr (+$318/mo · 58.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,997
• − Property taxes: −$6,551
• − Insurance: −$4,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,169
• − Management: −$10,169
• − Depreciation: −$24,407
• Taxable income: $24,624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,910
• After-tax cash flow: $30,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+639.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $839,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-12 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $729,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $779,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-14 Listed $829,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-14 Listed $829,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $113,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.