1561 Ailanthus · Hemet, CA 92545

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1992 7,841 sqft lot Est $275k · 28% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Bring your ideas and contractor.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is a single-unit residence
• HOA & community: Part of an association (Seven Hills); Monthly association fee of $46; Association amenities include golf; Located in a senior community; Community features include a golf course

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces (two total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story house; No attached dwelling unit (no ADU)
• Construction: Year built from assessor; No common walls
• Exterior features: House; Community pool; Front yard; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main floor; Entry at main level
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,609/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1813% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.95%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2526 Peach Tree	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-3%)	3mo	$290,000	$169	78
2953 Manzanita Way	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-3%)	3mo	$284,000	$166	71
1272 Lodgepole	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-0%)	0mo	$229,000	$130	69
2908 Jacaranda Way	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-0%)	7mo	$310,000	$176	69
1272 Brentwood Way	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-5%)	5mo	$259,000	$155	67
1293 Yellowood	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+3%)	3mo	$260,000	$143	64
1718 Burr Oak Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-2%)	2mo	$270,000	$156	59
1348 Jasmine	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	1mo	$193,205	$128	58
2683 Chamise Way	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-10%)	1mo	$265,000	$166	57
1361 Lodgepole Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+8%)	3mo	$289,900	$153	56
1232 Brentwood Way	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	1mo	$240,000	$159	53
1262 Sorrel	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$138	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,033
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $71,144
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,890/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $704	+0% $648	+5% $592	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $545	+0% $648	+5% $751	+10% $854
Rate	-1.0pp $748	-0.5pp $698	base $648	+0.5pp $596	+1.0pp $544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1354 Jasmine Way Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	44d	1	0.23mi
2971 Peach Tree St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,395	$1.31	44d	1	0.27mi
1955 Silver Oak Way Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,250	$1.71	44d	1	0.46mi
3138 Greengable Ln Hemet, CA	4.0	3.0	2475	$3,400	$1.37	44d	1	0.49mi
1096 Burton St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.5	1477	$2,595	$1.76	0d	1	0.55mi
3147 Red Cedar Trl Hemet, CA	4.0	2.5	2390	$3,500	$1.46	25d	1	0.56mi
2971 Pembroke Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1572	$3,000	$1.91	19d	1	0.83mi
3080 Hampton Ave Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1552	$2,695	$1.74	8d	1	0.85mi
1460 Caprice Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	3.0	1898	$3,250	$1.71	25d	1	0.88mi
828 Greenwich Ct Hemet, CA	3.0	3.0	1977	$2,700	$1.37	19d	1	0.88mi
1018 San Nicolas St Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	2448	$1,750	$0.71	18d	1	0.98mi
4277 Harbor Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	3.0	1775	$3,650	$2.06	19d	1	1.08mi
1510 Sunnybank Dr Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1759	$2,750	$1.56	0d	1	1.10mi
1610 Stoneside Dr Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1760	$3,100	$1.76	44d	1	1.16mi
795 Cameo Ave Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,900	$1.81	15d	1	1.20mi
2099 Rosemary Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,700	$1.23	8d	1	1.25mi
1833 Bayside Ct Hemet, CA	4.0	3.0	1775	$2,900	$1.63	44d	1	1.27mi
1241 Sandlewood Dr Hemet, CA	2.0	1.5	1504	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.40mi
611 S Palm Ave Unit K Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$1,895	$1.51	8d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   remarks 38-char remark
5. 2026-06-04
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,890
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,926
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $6,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2008-05-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-11-29 Listed $239,900 CRMLS
• 2007-04-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-04-07 Listed $275,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,890 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.