891 Carroll Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$375,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 4,878 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FINISHING TOUCHES NOW COMPLETE, THIS IS SURE TO PLEASE! NEW WOOD BLINDS ON MAIN FLR,NEW KIT CABINETS,SS APPLS.NEW BATHROOM VANITIES,TUB & SHOWER.NEW MAPLE FLRS IN LR,DR & ENTRY.NEW CARPET & PAINT.2ND FLR LAUNDRY. NEW 2 CAR GAR.

Key facts

• 4,878 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Entry facing city street
• Construction: Stone foundation; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Wrap-around porch; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (multiple upper-level bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; One half bathroom; Primary suite with private and 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Living room; Unfinished basement; 3 BR on one level; 4 BR on one level; 2nd floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Upper-level laundry; Humidifier; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,128/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $203k; list at $375k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $312,837 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-77,752
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,580
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,112/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,437

Max offer price $331,888

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	1d	23	1.05mi
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$4,398	$3.90	2d	7	1.39mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 2026-05-08
   historical $375,000
4. 2009-12-18
   soldstatus $203,000
5. 2009-12-14
   soldstatus $203,000 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   FINISHING TOUCHES NOW COMPLETE, THIS IS SURE TO PLEASE! NEW WOOD BLINDS ON MAIN FLR,NEW KIT CABINETS,SS APPLS.NEW BATHROOM VANITIES,TUB & SHOWER.NEW MAPLE FLRS IN LR,DR & ENTRY.NEW CARPET & PAINT.2ND FLR LAUNDRY. NEW 2 CAR GAR.

6. 2009-11-23
   historical 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   FINISHING TOUCHES NOW COMPLETE, THIS IS SURE TO PLEASE! NEW WOOD BLINDS ON MAIN FLR,NEW KIT CABINETS,SS APPLS.NEW BATHROOM VANITIES,TUB & SHOWER.NEW MAPLE FLRS IN LR,DR & ENTRY.NEW CARPET & PAINT.2ND FLR LAUNDRY. NEW 2 CAR GAR.

7. 2009-11-11
   listed $199,900 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   FINISHING TOUCHES NOW COMPLETE, THIS IS SURE TO PLEASE! NEW WOOD BLINDS ON MAIN FLR,NEW KIT CABINETS,SS APPLS.NEW BATHROOM VANITIES,TUB & SHOWER.NEW MAPLE FLRS IN LR,DR & ENTRY.NEW CARPET & PAINT.2ND FLR LAUNDRY. NEW 2 CAR GAR.

8. 2009-11-11
   historical

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   FINISHING TOUCHES NOW COMPLETE, THIS IS SURE TO PLEASE! NEW WOOD BLINDS ON MAIN FLR,NEW KIT CABINETS,SS APPLS.NEW BATHROOM VANITIES,TUB & SHOWER.NEW MAPLE FLRS IN LR,DR & ENTRY.NEW CARPET & PAINT.2ND FLR LAUNDRY. NEW 2 CAR GAR.

9. 2009-10-12
   listed $199,900
10. 2009-05-13
    historical
11. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus $34,900
12. 2009-03-03
    listed $29,900
13. 2009-02-28
    historical
14. 2009-01-31
    listed $29,900
15. 2009-01-30
    historical
16. 2008-11-10
    listed $34,900
17. 2008-11-09
    historical
18. 2008-10-23
    listed $49,900
19. 2008-10-16
    historical
20. 2008-05-01
    listed $54,900
21. 2008-04-04
    historical
22. 2008-01-17
    listed $64,900
23. 2007-10-30
    historical
24. 2007-06-05
    listed $135,000
25. 2003-02-19
    historical
26. 2003-02-11
    listed $154,900
27. 2002-07-25
    soldstatus $125,000
28. 2002-06-17
    soldstatus $88,000
29. 1991-12-13
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,112 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,112 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$7,112
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,003
• − Management: −$3,003
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+535.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $203,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-14 Sold (MLS) $203,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-11 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-12 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-31 Sold (MLS) $34,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-03 Listed $29,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-31 Listed $29,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-10 Listed $34,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-23 Listed $49,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-01 Listed $54,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-17 Listed $64,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-05 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-11 Listed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,112 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.