206 S Lyons Ave · Naylor, MO 63953

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1957 Fair condition 0.29 ac lot $81/sqft · at area comps Est $82k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ocated at 206 South Lyons Avenue in Naylor, Missouri, this 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offers approximately 990 square feet of living space with generously sized rooms throughout. Built in 1957, the home sits on a large city lot of approximately 0.29 acres and includes a fenced backyard, providing privacy and outdoor space for recreation or pets. The property also features a detached shop/outbuilding, offering additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located within the city limits of Naylor, this property provides small-town living with plenty of outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large city lot
• Detached shop
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED SHOP
• LARGE CITY LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($884 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#537 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Naylor R-II (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #138 of 535 in MO (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ripley County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -2.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $18,926
• Equity at exit: $35,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $54,407
• Equity at exit: $55,436

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63953

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   status $80,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-03-11
   listed $80,000 Active 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   ocated at 206 South Lyons Avenue in Naylor, Missouri, this 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offers approximately 990 square feet of living space with generously sized rooms throughout. Built in 1957, the home sits on a large city lot of approximately 0.29 acres and includes a fenced backyard, providing privacy and outdoor space for recreation or pets. The property also features a detached shop/outbuilding, offering additional storage or workspace. Conveniently located within the city limits of Naylor, this property provides small-town living with plenty of outdoor space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$849
• − Management: −$849
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, HVAC system, and windows. Improvements to the interior walls and ceilings, landscaping, and curb appeal can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major interior walls and ceilings — The interior walls and ceilings show signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major bathrooms — The bathrooms appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal are poor, with overgrown grass and a lack of maintenance.
• Major windows — The windows appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls and ceilings — Painting the interior walls and ceilings can improve the overall appearance and value of the home.
• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value.
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can increase the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both repair and replace windows — New windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and ceilings · The interior walls and ceilings show signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · The bathrooms appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping and curb appeal are poor, with overgrown grass and a lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · The windows appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls and ceilings — Painting the interior walls and ceilings can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value. ↑
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can increase the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both repair and replace windows — New windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Naylor R-II
• NCES district ID: 2921720
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,842
• Composite: 43.07/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #138 of 535 in MO

Livability — Naylor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #537
• US rank: #20039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naylor, MO
• Population (ZIP): 684

Population outlook (Ripley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,011 people
• By 2030: 12,515 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 11,512 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 10,427 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 7,833 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 5,692 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ripley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.0) · D 13.2% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.1pp · 2024: -73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.0 2020: R+70.1 2016: R+66.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid