225 Little Florida Rd · Poquoson, VA
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $666 – $1,236
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +14.0/30.0
- ARV discount +11.2/15.0
- Schools +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +4.3/10.0
- 1% rule +3.5/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$319,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to this beautifully refreshed, turn-key colonial home with an expansive half-acre lot in the heart of Poquoson. This move-in-ready 4-bedroom home shines with brand new paint and plush new carpet throughout the entire house. The bright kitchen showcases newly painted cabinets, a brand new refrigerator, and a clear sideline to a massive, clear backyard oasis perfect for entertaining. Curb appeal and piece of mine are elevated by a newly installed door on the attached garage. This home is less than a half a mile from Poquoson primary, middle, and high school. Commuters will love the quick access to Langley AFB and NASA, while water enthusiasts are just minutes from local marinas. Prope
Key facts
- Newly installed door
- Half acre lot
- Garage
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: No HOA fees indicated
Exterior
- Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Driveway parking
- Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric power
- Home design: Detached traditional home; Two stories; Crawl foundation; Simple ownership
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
- Exterior features: Deck; Back chain-link fence
Interior
- Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
- Bedrooms: One bedroom with ensuite; Master bedroom with bath
- Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
- Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Attic fan; Cable hookup; Ceiling fan; Pull-down attic stairs; Scuttle access; One fireplace
- Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (21.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (15.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $252k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in Poquoson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
- Poquoson City Public School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 91% proficiency, ranked #2 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Poquoson Elementary (math 81% / reading 92%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 444 students, 21% FRL); Poquoson Middle (math 79% / reading 87%, grade A+, #17 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 451 students, 23% FRL); Poquoson High (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 690 students, 19% FRL).
- Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 133 units permitted in Poquoson city in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Poquoson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.85% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.46%
- Cash-on-cash
- 0.58%
- DSCR
- 1.03
- GRM
- 9.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $348,740
- Comps found
- 6
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197 Cedar Rd | 0.38mi | 4/2.0 | 1,512 (+2%) | 2mo | $345,000 | $228 | 76 |
| 106 Cedar Rd | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,600 (+8%) | 12mo | $385,000 | $241 | 65 |
| 1 Berwick St | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,539 (+4%) | 14mo | $380,000 | $247 | 52 |
| 100 Hudgins Rd | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,487 (+0%) | 12mo | $335,000 | $225 | 52 |
| 13 Jean Mar Dr | 0.65mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,684 (+14%) | 13mo | $395,000 | $235 | 32 |
| 13 Jean Mar Dr | 0.65mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,684 (+14%) | 13mo | $395,000 | $235 | 32 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -24.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.15×
- Total profit
- $-76,016
- Equity at exit
- $47,698
- IRR
- -20.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.08×
- Total profit
- $-96,682
- Equity at exit
- $27,659
Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 23662
- Active inventory
- 166
- Price-to-rent
- 9.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,708 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,678
- Tax from tax record
- −$285 /mo · $3,422/yr
- Insurance
- −$133
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$569
- Net cashflow
- $-383
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-202 | -5% $-293 | +0% $-383 | +5% $-474 | +10% $-564 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-597 | -5% $-490 | +0% $-383 | +5% $-276 | +10% $-169 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-222 | -0.5pp $-302 | base $-383 | +0.5pp $-466 | +1.0pp $-551 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $79,975
- Closing costs
- $9,597
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 Rowe Dr Poquoson, VA | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1650 | $2,550 | $1.55 | 9d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 87 Charles Parish Dr Unit 87 Poquoson, VA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $1,950 | $1.43 | 19d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 104 Pocosin Path Poquoson, VA | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1765 | $2,495 | $1.41 | 45d | 1 | 1.32mi |
Listing history 2 events
-
2026-06-21remarks 699-char remark
-
2026-06-21$319,900 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,422 · $285/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,422 · $285/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,496
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,919
- − Property taxes
- −$3,422
- − Insurance
- −$6,718
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,600
- − Management
- −$2,600
- − Depreciation
- −$9,306
- Taxable loss
- −$10,069
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,417
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,183/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Poquoson City Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5102980
- Math proficiency
- 78% ▼ -14.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 91% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $83,895
- Composite
- 74.58/100
- National rank
- #154
- State rank
- #2 of 131 in VA
Livability — Poquoson
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #276
- US rank
- #9903
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Poquoson, VA
- County
- Poquoson City · 12,639 people
- City population
- 12,639
- Metro
- Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,639
- Household income
- $120,972
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 89.0
Population outlook (Poquoson County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 12,348 people
- By 2030
- 12,611 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 12,894 · +4.4%
- By 2050
- 12,779 · +3.5%
- By 2075
- 13,020 · +5.4%
- By 2100
- 11,925 · -3.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (89%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 6% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Poquoson
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.4% · R 72.3% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -49.3pp · 2024: -45.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+49.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -275.55%
- Current HPI
- 267.5479
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
|
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| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
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| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
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| Technology | 2 | $15B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-19 Listed $319,900 REINMLS
Property tax history
+6.2%/yrLatest (2025): $3,422 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…