109 Morningside Ln · O'Fallon, MO 63366

$249,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1964 8,999 sqft lot Est $240k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to affordable luxury! This newly remodeled O'Fallon ranch features a new kitchen and bathrooms, fresh paint, refinished hardwood floors, updated lighting, a covered carport, and a comfortable deck overlooking the fenced yard. The kitchen offers new white cabinetry and counters, waterproof flooring, and brand-new stainless appliances that stay. Major improvements include a new roof, new water heater, and new electric panel. The full unfinished basement provides excellent storage, laundry/workspace area, or future finishing potential. No HOA!

Key facts

• 8,999 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership; Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One story; House structure
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Basement present
• Exterior features: Entry steps/stairs; Private yard; Back yard; Few trees; Front yard; Level lot; Near public transit; Private lot; Chain link fencing (full fence)

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Gas oven; Self-cleaning oven; Range / Range hood; Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Pantry; Basement (full, unfinished); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-446/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westhoff Elem. (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #280 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 545 students, 21% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt North High (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #83 of 521 statewide, top 16%, 1,497 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $250k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,580 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,984
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Briscoe Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,151 (+2%)	9mo	$225,000	$195	74
201 Allen Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,090 (-4%)	1mo	$234,000	$215	74
904 Saint Paul Ln	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,130 (-0%)	7mo	$120,000	$106	71
555 Knob Hill Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,057 (-7%)	8mo	$214,900	$203	63
502 Allen Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,174 (+4%)	8mo	$240,000	$204	59
411 Saint Christopher Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,130 (-0%)	8mo	$259,900	$230	58
1343 Goldenrod Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,022 (-10%)	14mo	$264,900	$259	57
771 Homerun Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,172 (+4%)	9mo	$265,000	$226	56
909 Saint Bernard Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-8%)	14mo	$120,000	$116	53
301 Bittersweet Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	14mo	$275,000	$212	50
411 Saint Joseph Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-12%)	7mo	$249,000	$249	45
403 Saint Christopher Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,235 (+9%)	13mo	$240,000	$194	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,607
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $9,318
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63366

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,390/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $243,338

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $34	+0% $-37	+5% $-108	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-116	+0% $-37	+5% $42	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $26	base $-37	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Old Schaeffer Ln Unit O O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1202	$2,350	$1.96	13d	1	0.31mi
555 Whitegate Dr O'Fallon, MO	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.39mi
16 Homefield Gardens Dr O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	20d	1	0.61mi
16 Homefield Gardens Dr O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	992	$1,600	$1.61	17d	1	0.61mi
1606 Homefield Meadows Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,692	$1.51	2d	1	0.82mi
204 N Main St O'Fallon, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	611	$1,704	$2.79	2d	8	0.87mi
20 Rodrick Dr O Fallon, MO	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,250	$1.80	5d	1	1.32mi
200 Casalon Pkwy O'Fallon, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,854	$2.50	2d	23	1.37mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $249,900
4. 1997-04-01
   soldstatus $73,200
5. 1982-10-01
   soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,390
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 54,769
• Household income: $100,621
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.79%
• Current HPI: 226.7579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.43%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+474.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,200 Public Records
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,390 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.