12662 N Springfield Rd · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured · 161 Days on market

Built 1994 1.04 ac lot $97/sqft · 29% below area Est $268k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seize the chance to own this sprawling 1-acre horse property! Welcome to this expansive property, showcasing two mobile residences, each complete with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a comfortable living space, a kitchen, and outdoor storage sheds. The potential here is limitless; seize this fantastic investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 160 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.9% in Avra Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $190k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,487
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -29.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16805 W Weatherby Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+3%)	9mo	$280,000	$139	64
12355 N Whitetail Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (0%)	4mo	$259,900	$133	59
16820 W Placita La Junta	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (-3%)	13mo	$283,000	$148	58
12201 N Derringer Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-11%)	2mo	$270,000	$156	44
12200 N Derringer Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+12%)	5mo	$127,000	$58	40
12750 N Anway Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,244 (+14%)	20mo	$400,000	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,126
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,788
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    listed $190,000 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Seize the chance to own this sprawling 1-acre horse property! Welcome to this expansive property, showcasing two mobile residences, each complete with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a comfortable living space, a kitchen, and outdoor storage sheds. The potential here is limitless; seize this fantastic investment opportunity!

17. 2026-01-07
    price $190,000
18. 2025-12-28
    historical
19. 2025-07-25
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 1997-06-12
    soldstatus $42,000
21. 1997-06-12
    soldstatus $42,000
22. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $43,000
23. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 128.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3066.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-28 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-25 Listed $200,000 MLSSAZ
• 1997-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.