380 Old Stagecoach Rd · Sonterra, TX 76537

$237,195

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 $138/sqft · 19% below area Est $294k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Explore the Jasmine floor plan, a spacious two-story home offering approximately 1,719 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space at our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This inviting 4-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, and a two-car garage blends comfort, style, and functionality. As you enter the home, you're greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom, which include

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Standing tub
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• JASMINE FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• STANDING TUB
• FLEXIBLE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $252,195

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (spec home); Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 380 Old Stagecoach Rd, Jarrell, TX 76537

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Jasmine plan; Living area approximately 1,719

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,169 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,038
• List price: $237,195
• Delta: -14.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Starpacker Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	1mo	$246,999	$154	71
356 Brannigan Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	2mo	$239,990	$149	70
121 Starpacker Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	2mo	$232,999	$145	70
344 Brannigan Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	2mo	$229,990	$143	70
349 Brannigan Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	3mo	$232,990	$145	68
105 Starpacker Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	3mo	$254,990	$159	67
133 Starpacker Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+12%)	2mo	$255,990	$133	63
129 Morrison Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-8%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	63
352 Brannigan Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+12%)	3mo	$260,990	$136	62
109 Green Berets Bnd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,625 (-6%)	2mo	$271,990	$167	60
105 Green Berets Bnd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,837 (+7%)	4mo	$299,990	$163	56
145 Hatari Trl	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,945 (+13%)	1mo	$307,990	$158	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,275
• Equity at exit: $35,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-75,690
• Equity at exit: $20,508

Cash invested: $66,415 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,244
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,558/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,075

Max offer price $220,820

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-31	+0% $-113	+5% $-195	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-189	+0% $-113	+5% $-37	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-53	base $-113	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,299
• Closing costs: $7,116
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.22mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.25mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.26mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.31mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.33mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.38mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.38mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.45mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.93mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.95mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	4d	1	1.03mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	1.04mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.09mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.09mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.09mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.13mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.14mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	45d	1	1.25mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.26mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.26mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.38mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.41mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.43mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $237,195 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,195 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,195 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,195 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,195 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,195 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,195 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,195 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,195 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $252,195 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,195 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,195 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,195 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,195 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $252,195 Active 1474-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,287
• − Property taxes: −$3,558
• − Insurance: −$1,186
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$6,900
• Taxable loss: −$5,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $-48/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B