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18530 Athena Flower Dr 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 32.74
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.6/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Appreciation +4.0/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.8/10.0
  • Schools +1.6/10.0
  • DSCR +0.9/10.0

$343,990

18530 Athena Flower Dr · Fresno, TX 77545
4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,345 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18530 Athena Flower Drive located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, 1 half bath, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

Key facts

  • 2 garage spots
  • Built 2026
  • Listed 14 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (31.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (22.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $235k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $234,955 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.68%
Cap rate
4.32%
Cash-on-cash
-7.06%
DSCR
0.69
GRM
12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$389,552
List price
$343,990
Delta
-11.70%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
18518 Athena Flower Dr 0.02mi 4/3.5 2,214 (-6%) 1mo $388,155 $175 89
18542 Athena Flower Dr 0.02mi 4/3.5 2,214 (-6%) 2mo $347,990 $157 88
18626 Serapis St 0.10mi 5/4.0 (+1) 2,532 (+8%) 3mo $381,990 $151 72
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr 0.44mi 4/2.5 2,340 (-0%) 4mo $332,500 $142 72
18550 Athena Flower Dr 0.04mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,117 (-10%) 2mo $308,990 $146 72
2322 Alcove Foster Ct 0.54mi 4/2.5 2,347 (+0%) 2mo $285,000 $121 69
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl 0.65mi 4/2.5 2,392 (+2%) 4mo $295,000 $123 58
2543 Tucker Creek Dr 0.75mi 4/3.0 2,323 (-1%) 4mo $300,000 $129 58
1927 Vermillion View St 0.63mi 4/2.5 2,215 (-6%) 4mo $277,500 $125 54
1931 Acorn Glen Trl 0.68mi 4/2.5 2,480 (+6%) 4mo $279,900 $113 51
2631 Sunlit Meadow Trl 0.47mi 4/2.5 2,656 (+13%) 3mo $329,995 $124 49
2406 Grove View Trl 0.74mi 4/2.0 2,165 (-8%) 5mo $297,500 $137 43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-30.8%
Equity multiple
-0.12×
Total profit
$-121,796
Equity at exit
$76,004
10-year hold
IRR
-34.3%
Equity multiple
-0.90×
Total profit
$-207,445
Equity at exit
$65,284

Cash invested: $109,075 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
33 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply
5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$330,000 ($142/sqft)
Median days on market
77 d
This list price
70% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

Home prices YoY
-0.8%
Rents YoY
-0.9%
Active inventory
268
Price-to-rent
10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,664 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,043
Tax est. 1.5%
$487 /mo · $5,843/yr
Insurance
$162
Flood insurance flood zone
−$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA
$54
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$559
Net cashflow
$-1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,016
Max offer price $234,955
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-799 -5% $-934 +0% $-1,068 +5% $-1,203 +10% $-1,338
Rent -10% $-1,279 -5% $-1,174 +0% $-1,068 +5% $-963 +10% $-858
Rate -1.0pp $-872 -0.5pp $-969 base $-1,068 +0.5pp $-1,169 +1.0pp $-1,272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$97,388
Closing costs
$11,687
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX 5.0 3.5 2785 $4,000 $1.44 139d 1 0.49mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX 3.0 2.0 1584 $1,895 $1.20 48d 1 0.61mi
2507 Feather Green Trl Fresno, TX 5.0 2.5 2667 $2,490 $0.93 10d 1 0.64mi
2026 Acorn Glen Trl Fresno, TX 4.0 2.5 2294 $2,280 $0.99 29d 1 0.67mi
2202 Tannin Trce Fresno, TX 4.0 2.5 2209 $2,231 $1.01 34d 1 0.85mi
1926 Lansing Cove Dr Fresno, TX 3.0 2.0 2153 $2,098 $0.97 59d 1 1.13mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX 3.0 2.0 1597 $1,711 $1.07 74d 1 1.14mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX 4.0 2.5 1718 $1,700 $0.99 24d 1 1.18mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX 4.0 4.0 3026 $2,850 $0.94 139d 1 1.25mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX 4.0 3.0 3136 $2,624 $0.84 116d 1 1.28mi
3327 Jib Ct Fresno, TX 3.0 2.0 1780 $2,040 $1.15 35d 1 1.30mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 2109 $2,271 $1.08 101d 1 1.37mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2278 $2,395 $1.05 115d 1 1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Full ownership
HOA & community
HOA managed by Principal MgmtAnnual association fee of $650Community parkCurbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with 2 spaces
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Built in 2026Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features
Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fenceSprinkler/irrigationSubdivision settingConcrete road frontage

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGranite countersKitchen islandPantryEnergy-efficient appliances
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x17)Additional bedrooms on the second floor (sizes: x; 10x13; 14x10)
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Gas log fireplaceDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySelf-closing drawersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboWindow treatmentsCeiling fansLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsEnergy Star qualified appliancesInstant hot waterTankless water heater
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupInstant hot waterTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $343,990 Active 15 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $343,990 Active 14 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $343,990 Active 13 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $343,990 Active 12 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $343,990 Active 11 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $343,990 Active 10 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $343,990 Active 9 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $343,990 Active 8 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $343,990 Active 7 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $343,990 Active 6 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $343,990 Active 5 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $343,990 Active 4 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $343,990 Active 3 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on marketlisting id $343,990 Active 2 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $343,990 Active 137 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 136 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $343,990 Active 132 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $378,570 Active 131 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $378,570 Active 130 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $378,570 Active 129 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $378,570 Active 128 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $378,570 Active 126 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $378,570 Active 125 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $378,570 Active 124 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $378,570 Active 123 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $378,570 Active 122 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $378,570 Active 121 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $378,570 Active 120 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $378,570 Active 119 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $378,570 Active 118 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $378,570 Active 117 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $378,570 Active 116 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $378,570 Active 115 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $378,570 Active 114 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $378,570 Active 113 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $378,570 Active 112 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    price $378,570 Active 111 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $343,990 Active 111 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $343,990 Active 110 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $343,990 Active 109 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $378,570 Active 107 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $378,570 Active 106 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $378,570 Active 105 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $378,570 Active 104 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $378,570 Active 101 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $378,570 Active 99 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $378,570 Active 98 DOM
  48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $378,570 Active 96 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $378,570 Active 94 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $378,570 Active 93 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,963
− Mortgage interest
−$21,821
− Property taxes
−$5,843
− Insurance
−$7,066
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,557
− Management
−$2,557
− HOA
−$648
− Depreciation
−$11,332
Taxable loss
−$19,862
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$4,767
After-tax cash flow
$-8,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a clean, well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minimal investment.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
  • Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
  • Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants.
  • Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Willowridge H S F TX #1,389/1,632 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

Score
62/100
State rank
#943
US rank
#16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Fresno, TX
County
Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population
26,236
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
26,236
Household income
$94,474
Rent vs Own
20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden
2% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity
Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Common ancestry
Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada
Languages at home
67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-0.3% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-08 Price Changed $376,570 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-04 Price Changed $374,570 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-16 Listed $377,570 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…