18530 Athena Flower Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

$343,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,345 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18530 Athena Flower Drive located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, 1 half bath, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 108 days

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $390,553.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-939 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,715 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,553
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -3.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18542 Athena Flower Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5	2,214 (-6%)	0mo	$347,990	$157	89
18626 Serapis St	0.10mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,532 (+8%)	2mo	$381,990	$151	74
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,340 (-0%)	3mo	$332,500	$142	73
18550 Athena Flower Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (-10%)	0mo	$308,990	$146	73
2322 Alcove Foster Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,347 (+0%)	1mo	$285,000	$121	70
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+2%)	3mo	$295,000	$123	60
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,323 (-1%)	3mo	$300,000	$129	59
1927 Vermillion View St	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,215 (-6%)	3mo	$277,500	$125	55
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+6%)	2mo	$279,900	$113	52
2631 Sunlit Meadow Trl	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,656 (+13%)	2mo	$329,995	$124	50
2406 Grove View Trl	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,165 (-8%)	3mo	$297,500	$137	44
2050 Bravos Manor Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,658 (+13%)	4mo	$369,990	$139	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-114,161
• Equity at exit: $76,199

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-192,073
• Equity at exit: $65,452

Cash invested: $109,355 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $336,990 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$488 /mo · $5,858/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-939

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,025

Max offer price $254,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-669	-5% $-804	+0% $-939	+5% $-1,074	+10% $-1,209
Rent	-10% $-1,163	-5% $-1,051	+0% $-939	+5% $-827	+10% $-715
Rate	-1.0pp $-742	-0.5pp $-839	base $-939	+0.5pp $-1,040	+1.0pp $-1,143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,638
• Closing costs: $11,717
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	93d	1	0.49mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	1d	1	0.61mi
1926 Lansing Cove Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,098	$0.97	12d	1	1.13mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	28d	1	1.14mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,780	$1.04	4d	1	1.18mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	93d	1	1.25mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	70d	1	1.28mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	54d	1	1.37mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	69d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Principal MgmtAnnual association fee of $650Community parkCurbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fenceSprinkler/irrigationSubdivision settingConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGranite countersKitchen islandPantryEnergy-efficient appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x17)Additional bedrooms on the second floor (sizes: x; 10x13; 14x10)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplaceDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySelf-closing drawersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboWindow treatmentsCeiling fansLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsEnergy Star qualified appliancesInstant hot waterTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupInstant hot waterTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $343,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $378,570 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $378,570 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $378,570 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $378,570 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $378,570 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $378,570 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $378,570 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $378,570 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $378,570 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $378,570 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $378,570 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $378,570 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $378,570 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $378,570 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $378,570 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $378,570 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $378,570 Active 85 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $378,570 Active 84 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $378,570 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $378,570 Active 82 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $378,570 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $378,570 Active 80 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $378,570 Active 79 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $378,570 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $378,570 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $378,570 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $378,570 Active 74 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $378,570 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $378,570 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $376,570 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $376,570 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $376,570 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $376,570 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $376,570 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $376,570 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $376,570 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $376,570 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $376,570 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $376,570 Active 58 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $376,570 Active 57 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $376,570 Active 56 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $376,570 Active 55 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $376,570 Active 53 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $376,570 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,570 Active 47 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,570 Active 44 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,570 Active 43 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,570 Active 42 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,570 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,877
• − Property taxes: −$5,858
• − Insurance: −$7,071
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,723
• − Management: −$2,723
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,362
• Taxable loss: −$18,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,374
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a clean, well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minimal investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Willowridge H S F TX #1,389/1,632 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Principal MgmtAnnual association fee of $650Community parkCurbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fenceSprinkler/irrigationSubdivision settingConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGranite countersKitchen islandPantryEnergy-efficient appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x17)Additional bedrooms on the second floor (sizes: x; 10x13; 14x10)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplaceDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySelf-closing drawersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower comboWindow treatmentsCeiling fansLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsEnergy Star qualified appliancesInstant hot waterTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupInstant hot waterTankless water heater

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $376,570 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $374,570 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $377,570 HARMLS