🏷️ Likely Rental
322 Bellevue Dr · Round Lake Park, IL
Flood risk 6/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.72%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$130,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcome to this inviting home offering both comfortable living and strong rental potential. The interior features a functional layout with spacious living areas that provide flexibility for everyday living entertaining or long term rental use. The kitchen and main living spaces offer a solid foundation ready for updates or tenant occupancy. Outside you will find a nice yard with room for outdoor enjoyment gardening or gatherings. Conveniently located near parks schools shopping and transportation this property is well positioned for consistent rental demand making it a great opportunity for both investors and buyers looking to build equity and long term value.
Key facts
- Near schools
- Outdoor enjoyment
- Near parks
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
- Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.5% in Round Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#422 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment D-.
- Round Lake CUSD 116 (suburban): math 7% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #560 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.53% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.34%
- Cash-on-cash
- 18.03%
- DSCR
- 1.80
- GRM
- 5.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $181,424
- List price
- $130,000
- Delta
- -28.34%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302 Elder Dr | 0.13mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 759 (-1%) | 4mo | $125,000 | $165 | 84 |
| 221 Kenwood Dr | 0.19mi | 2/1.0 | 771 (+1%) | 8mo | $150,000 | $195 | 84 |
| 324 Highmoor Dr | 0.05mi | 2/1.0 | 838 (+9%) | 15mo | $175,000 | $209 | 70 |
| 114 Clifton Dr | 0.32mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 800 (+4%) | 5mo | $175,000 | $219 | 68 |
| 123 E Pineview Dr | 0.37mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 788 (+3%) | 8mo | $190,000 | $241 | 67 |
| 420 E Washington St | 0.32mi | 2/1.0 | 812 (+6%) | 11mo | $70,000 | $86 | 66 |
| 515 Catalpa Dr | 0.40mi | 2/1.0 | 716 (-6%) | 6mo | $180,000 | $251 | 66 |
| 414 Fairlawn Dr | 0.11mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 864 (+13%) | 9mo | $275,000 | $318 | 57 |
| 324 N Prospect Dr | 0.17mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 864 (+13%) | 11mo | $240,000 | $278 | 57 |
| 423 Bellevue Dr | 0.13mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 850 (+11%) | 13mo | $200,000 | $235 | 56 |
| 411 Bellevue Dr | 0.08mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 850 (+11%) | 19mo | $192,000 | $226 | 53 |
| 536 Arbor Dr | 0.40mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 864 (+13%) | 8mo | $260,000 | $301 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.87% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 9.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.37×
- Total profit
- $13,620
- Equity at exit
- $19,383
- IRR
- 18.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.54×
- Total profit
- $56,089
- Equity at exit
- $11,240
Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60073
- Rents YoY
- 2.9%
- Active inventory
- 97
- Price-to-rent
- 5.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,986 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$682
- Tax from tax record
- −$286 /mo · $3,432/yr
- Insurance
- −$54
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$417
- Net cashflow
- $547
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $621 | -5% $584 | +0% $547 | +5% $510 | +10% $473 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $390 | -5% $469 | +0% $547 | +5% $625 | +10% $704 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $612 | -0.5pp $580 | base $547 | +0.5pp $513 | +1.0pp $479 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $32,500
- Closing costs
- $3,900
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 426 Alpine Dr Round Lake, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 957 | $2,000 | $2.09 | 5d | 1 | 0.60mi |
Listing history 6 events
-
2026-06-03days on market $130,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $130,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $130,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-05-08price $130,000 668-char remark
Show marketing remark (668 chars)
Welcome to this inviting home offering both comfortable living and strong rental potential. The interior features a functional layout with spacious living areas that provide flexibility for everyday living entertaining or long term rental use. The kitchen and main living spaces offer a solid foundation ready for updates or tenant occupancy. Outside you will find a nice yard with room for outdoor enjoyment gardening or gatherings. Conveniently located near parks schools shopping and transportation this property is well positioned for consistent rental demand making it a great opportunity for both investors and buyers looking to build equity and long term value.
-
2026-04-17$135,000 Active 668-char remark
Show marketing remark (668 chars)
Welcome to this inviting home offering both comfortable living and strong rental potential. The interior features a functional layout with spacious living areas that provide flexibility for everyday living entertaining or long term rental use. The kitchen and main living spaces offer a solid foundation ready for updates or tenant occupancy. Outside you will find a nice yard with room for outdoor enjoyment gardening or gatherings. Conveniently located near parks schools shopping and transportation this property is well positioned for consistent rental demand making it a great opportunity for both investors and buyers looking to build equity and long term value.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,432 · $286/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,432 · $286/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,832
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,282
- − Property taxes
- −$3,432
- − Insurance
- −$650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,907
- − Management
- −$1,907
- − Depreciation
- −$3,782
- Taxable income
- $4,873
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,169
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,395/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Round Lake CUSD 116
- NCES district ID
- 1734990
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 14% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $53,477
- Composite
- 10.35/100
- National rank
- #9789
- State rank
- #560 of 620 in IL
Livability — Round Lake Park
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #422
- US rank
- #8626
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Round Lake Park, IL
- County
- Lake County · 591,991 people
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- Population (ZIP)
- 62,868
- Household income
- $98,514
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1225.0
Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 700,217 people
- By 2030
- 693,290 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 673,588 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 643,556 · -8.1%
- By 2075
- 562,792 · -19.6%
- By 2100
- 457,715 · -34.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 45% White 40% Two or more races 20% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 25% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 56% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Lake
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -140.95%
- Current HPI
- 229.1762
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.87%
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
||
| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
||
Price history
-3.7% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-08 Price Changed $130,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+2.4%/yrLatest (2024): $3,432 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…