Cadence Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$399,999

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home has everything the modern family needs to live in comfort. There are two bedrooms on the first floor, including the owner's suite, as well as an open living area and formal dining room. Upstairs are three additional bedrooms, plus a game room that can be used as a home office or living space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 245 days

🏗️ New construction. The $399,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $489,157.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-738 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $334,459 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.47%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,157
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -18.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1825 Jasmine June	0.09mi	5/4.0	2,683 (-4%)	3mo	$529,950	$198	84
1412 Casting Rdg	0.23mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,575 (-8%)	1mo	$498,900	$194	68
3212 Cantura Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,706 (-4%)	0mo	$368,900	$136	67
2017 Fall Creek Cv	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,814 (+0%)	1mo	$415,000	$147	66
1868 Night Owl Way	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,541 (-10%)	2mo	$419,490	$165	61
1816 Morning Mist Way	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (-8%)	2mo	$516,901	$201	58
2021 Jasper Mdw	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,541 (-10%)	1mo	$399,590	$157	56
1848 Acorn Creek Cir	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,189 (+14%)	2mo	$479,690	$150	51
1709 Morning Mist Way	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,189 (+14%)	3mo	$449,890	$141	50
1813 Forest Wood Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,630 (-6%)	3mo	$414,990	$158	50
2101 Lone Oak Trl	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,480 (-12%)	1mo	$469,000	$189	47
2025 Jasper Mdw	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,189 (+14%)	2mo	$484,790	$152	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-135,811
• Equity at exit: $72,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-215,673
• Equity at exit: $42,293

Cash invested: $136,964 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 138 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $453,994 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 275 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,565
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$611 /mo · $7,337/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,279

Max offer price $382,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-569	+0% $-738	+5% $-907	+10% $-1,076
Rent	-10% $-1,002	-5% $-870	+0% $-738	+5% $-606	+10% $-474
Rate	-1.0pp $-492	-0.5pp $-614	base $-738	+0.5pp $-865	+1.0pp $-994

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,289
• Closing costs: $14,675
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$3,195	$1.25	7d	1	0.27mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	73d	1	0.27mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	48d	1	0.59mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	93d	1	0.61mi
2324 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,500	$1.14	34d	1	0.67mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	73d	1	0.72mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	66d	1	0.77mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	93d	1	0.91mi
1421 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2828	$2,725	$0.96	0d	1	0.95mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,230	$1.06	13d	1	1.02mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	3d	1	1.05mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	57d	1	1.05mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	73d	1	1.08mi
3113 Blazing Star Rd Mesquite, TX	5.0	4.0	3711	$3,600	$0.97	0d	1	1.24mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	37d	1	1.25mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	93d	1	1.28mi
1226 Rivercrest Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3221	$3,970	$1.23	0d	1	1.28mi
2338 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2344	$2,400	$1.02	7d	1	1.37mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	73d	1	1.38mi
2404 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2323	$3,999	$1.72	1d	1	1.39mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	12d	1	1.41mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,600	$1.11	43d	1	1.41mi
1704 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2726	$2,900	$1.06	67d	1	1.44mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	48d	1	1.48mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	73d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $399,999 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $399,999 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $399,999 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $399,999 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $399,999 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $399,999 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $399,999 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $399,999 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,999 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,999 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,999 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $399,999 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $399,999 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,999 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,999 Active 224 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $399,999 Active 223 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $399,999 Active 222 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $399,999 Active 221 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 220 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 219 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $399,999 Active 218 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,999 Active 217 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $399,999 Active 216 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $399,999 Active 214 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,999 Active 213 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,999 Active 212 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $399,999 Active 211 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 210 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 209 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 208 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,999 Active 207 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,999 Active 206 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,999 Active 205 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $399,999 Active 203 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $399,999 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,999 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $399,999 Active 198 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,999 Active 195 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,999 Active 194 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,999 Active 193 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,999 Active 192 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 190 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 189 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,999 Active 186 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,999 Active 185 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,999 Active 184 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,999 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 180 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 179 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,400
• − Property taxes: −$7,337
• − Insurance: −$2,446
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,211
• − Management: −$3,211
• − Depreciation: −$14,230
• Taxable loss: −$17,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,045–$42,135 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gentry El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Berry Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $399,999 Zillow