1311 Mcclure Ave · Elmont, NY 11003

$425,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1958 4,320 sqft lot Est $772k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cape Cod 4br and 2 baths. The home is sold AS-IS with tenants; they are not fully cooperating!! All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Agents /Buyers are responsible for verifying all information pertaining to this property. Please don't advertise without permission. Do not disturb any occupants. short sale subject to bank approval.

Key facts

• 4,320 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 21 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Elmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in NY, #2,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Sewanhaka Central High School District (suburban): math 76% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #43 of 590 in NY (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $772,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1353 Kiefer Ave	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,298 (+6%)	0mo	$725,000	$559	77
389 Kirkman Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,210 (-2%)	3mo	$670,000	$554	77
32 Butler Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,198 (-3%)	2mo	$775,000	$647	69
1020 Polk Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,163 (-5%)	1mo	$780,000	$671	66
1098 Russell St	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,254 (+2%)	3mo	$839,000	$669	63
1132 Norbay St	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,280 (+4%)	3mo	$649,000	$507	62
912 Oaks Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,275 (+4%)	2mo	$825,000	$647	58
69 Butler Blvd	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,123 (-9%)	2mo	$730,000	$650	58
1041 Mosefan St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (+4%)	2mo	$737,000	$575	53
1134 Rosegold St	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,358 (+10%)	4mo	$750,000	$552	52
1366 E St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-14%)	3mo	$540,000	$508	48
40 Belmont Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,075 (-13%)	2mo	$675,000	$628	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-25,354
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $34,909
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11003

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$965 /mo · $11,584/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,267

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $918	-5% $798	+0% $678	+5% $558	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $475	+0% $678	+5% $880	+10% $1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $892	-0.5pp $786	base $678	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1316 McClure Ave Elmont, NY	4.0	2.5	1230	$5,500	$4.47	0d	1	0.06mi
630 Tulip Ave Unit 2 Floral Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,300	$3.30	22d	1	1.24mi
33 Kingston Ave Unit 1ST Floor South Floral Park, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	0d	1	1.26mi
605 Tulip Ave Stewart Manor, NY	3.0	1.0	665	$3,790	$5.70	0d	1	1.31mi
146 Covert Ave Apt H6 Stewart Manor, NY	3.0	3.0	950	$3,790	$3.99	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   listed $425,000 Active
3. 2024-06-28
   status Pending
4. 2024-06-28
   historical
5. 2024-06-26
   listed $425,000 Active
6. 2006-08-10
   soldstatus $465,000
7. 2006-08-10
   soldstatus $465,000
8. 1989-01-05
   soldstatus $170,000
9. 1979-09-01
   soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,584 · $965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,584 · $965/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$11,584
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,920
• − Management: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $1,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$428
• After-tax cash flow: $7,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sewanhaka Central High School District
• NCES district ID: 3626520
• Math proficiency: 76% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $95,771
• Composite: 71.6/100
• National rank: #220
• State rank: #43 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmont

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2127

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmont, NY
• City population: 44,716
• Population (ZIP): 44,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 17% White 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 12% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 10% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.86%
• Current HPI: 346.1523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+645.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 1989-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1979-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $11,584 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.