627 Alamos Ave · Sacramento, CA 95815

$300,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1951 6,098 sqft lot $217/sqft · 20% below area Est $373k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 627 Alamos Ave, a 2 bedroom (possibly 3) 1 bathroom home with approximately 1,380 square feet of living space. From the moment you walk in, you'll be greeted by a large living room and a generous picture window that fills the space with light. The kitchen offers a cozy breakfast nook, a convenient dining bar, and ample cabinet storage space. Step outside, and you'll discover a backyard with a pool, lawn space, and extra storage space for your needs. Don't overlook the enclosed patio and the interior laundry room-thoughtful features that make everyday living a breeze. Conveniently located nearby Altos community garden, a bike trail, and Las Palmas Elementary School. This home has

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Picture window
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PICTURE WINDOW
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• DINING BAR
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• BACKYARD WITH POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public district irrigation; 220V electric service; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Built in 1951; Facing and entry level details not provided
• Construction: Composition roof; Detached construction
• Exterior features: Built-in private pool; Lot with regular shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Hood over range; Disposal; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Breakfast nook / dining bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom); Main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination and a window
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Enclosed patio; Storage structure on property; One-level home
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,358/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1877% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,750 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,807
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -19.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
654 Alamos Ave	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,441 (+4%)	2mo	$482,000	$334	78
2680 Grove Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-1%)	4mo	$423,000	$311	69
2780 Grove Ave #2780	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-7%)	2mo	$310,000	$242	63
3255 Nareb St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+4%)	3mo	$325,000	$226	61
477 Lampasas Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,242 (-10%)	2mo	$278,000	$224	56
2441 Rio Linda Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	8mo	$399,000	$273	54
3311 Taylor St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,564 (+13%)	6mo	$361,000	$231	46
273 Arcade Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,175 (-15%)	4mo	$244,000	$208	45
3449 Altos Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-9%)	9mo	$369,000	$294	42
361 Ford Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-14%)	3mo	$400,000	$337	39
1201 Helena Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-15%)	3mo	$332,500	$283	38
233 Graves Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-14%)	1mo	$390,000	$330	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,698
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,801
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95815

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $187	+0% $103	+5% $18	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $9	+0% $103	+5% $196	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $179	base $103	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2577 Beaumont St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,900	$2.04	2d	1	0.43mi
2680 Grove Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1360	$2,700	$1.99	2d	1	0.50mi
2680 Grove Ave Unit NA Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1360	$2,500	$1.84	2d	1	0.50mi
2623 Ensenada Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,350	$2.32	2d	1	0.57mi
1013 Santiago Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,148	$1.65	2d	1	0.70mi
2472 Ben Ali Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1318	$3,450	$2.62	2d	1	0.72mi
2841 Taft St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,825	$1.66	44d	1	0.77mi
2379 Gibson St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	11d	1	0.81mi
3231 Del Mar Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	17d	1	0.98mi
102 Redwood Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	8d	1	0.99mi
581 Summer Garden Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	2d	1	1.28mi
570 Media Pl Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$3,511	$3.78	2d	23	1.31mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	44d	1	1.32mi
2621 Mysin Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,845	$1.64	2d	1	1.39mi
186 Globe Ave Unit 186 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	937	$1,895	$2.02	24d	1	1.45mi
1611 Cormorant Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,899	$1.90	8d	1	1.49mi
1611 Cormorant Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,899	$1.90	18d	1	1.49mi
3226 Pilgrim Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	2d	1	1.49mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	24d	1	1.50mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $300,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Contingent (Show) 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 208.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $2,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,658
• Household income: $60,097
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1877.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.04%
• Current HPI: 449.1398
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.