201 Nicholas Dr Unit NIC201 · Shiloh, IL 62269

$22,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a clubhouse, community events, and a basketball court, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Basketball court
• Built 2026

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• BASKETBALL COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 201 Nicholas Dr Unit NIC201, Shiloh, IL 62269; List price shown (verify with listing)
• Financial info: Listing is active and listed as a spec property

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central air
• Home design: Spec-built home (Plan 92411); Single-level entry
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1216

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
• Cap rate 71.8% vs local median 2.6% in Shiloh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#289 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $153 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $666 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,200

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 71.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 233.92%
• DSCR: 11.41
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.90×
• Total profit: $80,162
• Equity at exit: $3,310

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 32.90×
• Total profit: $198,296
• Equity at exit: $1,919

Cash invested: $6,216 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62269

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$116
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $333/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $1,212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $194

Max offer price $22,200

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,550
• Closing costs: $666
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1717 Saint Andrews Dr O Fallon, IL	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,295	$1.01	2d	1	0.90mi
1717 Saint Andrews Dr O Fallon, IL	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,295	$1.01	8d	1	0.90mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	2d	1	1.27mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	2.0	3.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	2d	1	1.27mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	1.27mi
109 Sugar Pine Ln O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,095	$1.12	2d	1	1.29mi
129 Sugar Pine Ln O'Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$750	$0.86	2d	1	1.36mi
419 Ponderosa Ave O'Fallon, IL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,345	$1.26	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,200 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,200 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,200 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,200 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,200 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 512-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $22,200 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,244
• − Property taxes: −$333
• − Insurance: −$111
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$646
• Taxable income: $15,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,620
• After-tax cash flow: $10,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: O Fallon Twp Hsd 203
• NCES district ID: 1729790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $82,945
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5240
• State rank: #145 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shiloh

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #5560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shiloh, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 35,536
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,923
• Household income: $103,818
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.35%
• Current HPI: 177.759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B