409 W Marion St · Atlanta, MO 63530

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1996 1.79 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the peace & privacy of a quiet setting on the edge of town w/ this week-kept 3 bdrm, 2 bath manufactured home situated on a generous 2-acre corner lot. The home features an inviting open layout with comfort & functionality perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Outdoors, you'll find a 30x40 metal outbuilding, ideal for a workshop, storage, or hobby use, along w/ fencing designed to accommodate horses or small livestock. A scenic pond adds to the tranquil atmosphere, while multiple smaller outbuildings provide plenty of additional storage or project space. This property offers the perfect blend of convenience & peaceful living ideal for those looking for space,

Key facts

• Scenic pond
• Fencing for horses
• 2 acre corner lot

Tags

• 2 ACRE CORNER LOT
• 30X40 METAL OUTBUILDING
• FENCING FOR HORSES
• SCENIC POND
• MULTIPLE SMALLER OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storm door(s); Wood fencing; Pond

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#554 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Atlanta C-3 (rural): math 70% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #10 of 535 in MO (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (19 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Macon County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $113,558 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,560
• Equity at exit: $60,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $21,845
• Equity at exit: $83,270

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63530

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $145,203

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-87	+0% $-135	+5% $-183	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-180	+0% $-135	+5% $-90	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-92	base $-135	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $169,000 Active
18. 2026-01-29
    status Pending
19. 2025-11-14
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$61/mo · 81.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $-493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta C-3
• NCES district ID: 2903480
• Math proficiency: 70% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,082
• Composite: 59.43/100
• National rank: #1896
• State rank: #10 of 535 in MO

Livability — Atlanta

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #554
• US rank: #20299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlanta, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,310

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,692 people
• By 2030: 14,209 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 13,197 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 12,160 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 9,745 · -33.7%
• By 2100: 7,314 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.5) · D 18.9% · R 80.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -61.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+33.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Current HPI: 109.8414
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $169,000 NECAR
• 2026-01-29 Pending — NECAR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $179,900 NECAR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.