251 Saddle Hill Rd · Stamford, CT 06903

$865,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1972 1.09 ac lot $375/sqft · 23% above area Est $1212k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

Key facts

• 1.09 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $865k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $850k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $813k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stamford School District (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #103 of 153 in CT (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($813k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $328k; list at $865k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $813,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,211,520
• List price: $865,000
• Delta: -28.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Mill Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,335 (+1%)	10mo	$620,000	$266	62
160 Rock Rimmon Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,324 (+1%)	2mo	$1,070,000	$460	58
106 E Hunting Ridge Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,476 (+7%)	3mo	$1,067,000	$431	54
239 E Hunting Ridge Rd	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,646 (+15%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$416	53
27 Wellington Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,402 (+4%)	3mo	$774,000	$322	53
20 E Hunting Ridge Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,194 (-5%)	18mo	$715,000	$326	42
200 E Hunting Ridge Rd	0.30mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,645 (+15%)	21mo	$920,000	$348	37
587 Haviland Rd	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,593 (+12%)	20mo	$1,530,000	$590	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-81,224
• Equity at exit: $128,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $5,206
• Equity at exit: $74,789

Cash invested: $242,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06903

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,536
• Tax from tax record: −$893 /mo · $10,718/yr
• Insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,785
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,329

Max offer price $865,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $216,250
• Closing costs: $25,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2428 Long Ridge Rd Stamford, CT	5.0	2.5	2848	$8,500	$2.98	2d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $865,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $865,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $865,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $865,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $865,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $865,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $865,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

17. 2026-05-01
    status Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

18. 2026-04-21
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

19. 2026-04-21
    price $865,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

20. 2026-03-25
    listed $891,000 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Discover your dream home, where modern elegance meets comfort! This stunning property boasts a spacious open-concept living area, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy natural light pouring in through large windows, highlighting the beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Step outside to a private backyard oasis, ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor gatherings. The master suite has an en-suite bathroom & sliders to the deck. Additional bedrooms are perfect for all, ensuring everyone has their own space. A full bathroom in the hallway serves the 2 bedrooms and is great for guests. Located in a friendly neighborhood, you'll have easy access to parks, schools, and shopping. Don't miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience all it has to offer!

21. 2022-06-04
    historical
22. 2022-05-20
    listed $791,000 Active
23. 1996-09-26
    soldstatus $328,500
24. 1996-09-06
    soldstatus $327,900
25. 1996-02-29
    listed $344,000
26. 1994-07-20
    historical
27. 1994-03-21
    listed $369,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,718 · $893/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,614 · $1,218/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,896/yr (+$325/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $102,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,453
• − Property taxes: −$10,718
• − Insurance: −$4,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,160
• − Management: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$25,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $11,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stamford School District
• NCES district ID: 0904320
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,843
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5010
• State rank: #103 of 153 in CT

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #7716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stamford, CT
• City population: 123,058
• Population (ZIP): 13,630

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -247.05%
• Current HPI: 163.3073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $865,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $891,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-06-04 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2022-05-20 Listed $791,000 Smart MLS
• 1996-09-26 Sold (MLS) $328,500 Smart MLS
• 1996-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $327,900 Public Records
• 1996-02-29 Listed $344,000 Smart MLS
• 1994-07-20 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 1994-03-21 Listed $369,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $10,718 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.