17789 Peterson Ln · Redding, CA 96003

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1950 0.63 ac lot $230/sqft · 32% above area Est $113k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage with 2 separate parcels totaling . 63 acres, just minutes from town. Newer roof, windows, and septic system within the last year. Included is a shed for storage, plus a separate storage building with the beginnings of a bathroom that could be re-imagined into an adu, game room, or extra living space.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Newer roof
• Newer septic system

Tags

• 2 SEPARATE PARCELS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• SEPARATE STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $149k implies a 397% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,617
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 50.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12221 Macs Rd	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	712 (+10%)	21mo	$120,000	$169	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,035
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $43,093
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $332	+0% $290	+5% $248	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $230	+0% $290	+5% $350	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $328	base $290	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $149,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $169,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-01-07
   listed $169,000 Active 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Check out this 2 bedroom 1 bath cottage with 2 separate parcels totaling . 63 acres, just minutes from town. Newer roof, windows, and septic system within the last year. Included is a shed for storage, plus a separate storage building with the beginnings of a bathroom that could be re-imagined into an adu, game room, or extra living space.

4. 2025-08-01
   listed $169,000 Active
5. 2020-11-09
   listed $110,000
6. 2020-03-23
   listed $110,000
7. 1990-06-13
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 49.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $3,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+463.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $169,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-01 Listed $169,000 SAOR
• 2020-11-09 Listed $110,000 SAOR
• 2020-03-23 Listed $110,000 SAOR
• 1990-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.