1809 Farm Way · Middleburg, FL 32068

$267,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $294k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Vinyl planks
• Shaker cabinetry

Tags

• SHAKER CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL PLANKS
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence used as a single family home
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Equipped with dishwasher, electric range, and microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet, Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Electric range, Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup, Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-933/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,253 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2268 Felucca Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$192	72
2070 Tickford St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-10%)	3mo	$282,000	$206	72
2058 Manucy Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+11%)	3mo	$277,000	$163	71
2237 Alderney Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-13%)	1mo	$147,000	$110	66
2432 Ambrosia Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (-2%)	5mo	$280,000	$186	62
1994 Apopka Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-5%)	1mo	$275,000	$189	58
1935 St George Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	1mo	$334,500	$195	57
2372 Tigress Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	1mo	$270,000	$198	54
1985 Apopka Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+4%)	3mo	$290,000	$183	52
1709 Ashwood Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-11%)	6mo	$280,000	$206	50
2410 Cashmere Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-15%)	0mo	$230,000	$177	48
2482 Aloha Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-13%)	6mo	$284,000	$214	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,449
• Equity at exit: $39,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,517
• Equity at exit: $23,085

Cash invested: $74,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,392/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $253,263

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-2	+0% $-78	+5% $-153	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-164	+0% $-78	+5% $8	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-10	base $-78	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,750
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1715 Farm Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,899	$1.57	8d	1	0.38mi
1872 Suwannee River Dr Fleming Island, FL	4.0	2.0	1971	$2,250	$1.14	24d	1	1.02mi
2732 Woodsdale Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,155	$1.08	5d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $267,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    status Active
16. 2026-03-05
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-05
    price $260,000
18. 2026-02-28
    status Active
19. 2026-02-28
    price $215,900
20. 2026-01-09
    historical
21. 2025-12-18
    price $199,000
22. 2025-12-04
    price $254,900
23. 2025-11-28
    status Active
24. 2025-11-13
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2025-10-24
    listed $264,900 Active
26. 2023-05-15
    soldstatus $289,000
27. 2023-05-09
    soldstatus $289,000 Sold 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

28. 2023-03-20
    status Pending 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

29. 2023-02-21
    price $275,999 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

30. 2023-02-17
    listed $299,999 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

31. 2023-02-17
    historical 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

32. 2023-02-09
    price $299,999 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

33. 2023-02-06
    listed $319,000 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Discover your dream home at 1809 Farm Way in the desirable community of Middleburg, FL. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom residence boasts a spacious and functional floor plan, perfect for family living and entertaining. 2172 sqft with the 2 car garage! The home features a beautiful kitchen with all new stainless appliances, ample shaker cabinetry and quartz counter space, perfect for preparing meals. The high quality vinyl planks throughout will offer you durability and style to last for years to come. The spacious bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, while the luxurious bathrooms provide a spa-like escape. Enjoy the Florida sunshine in the backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings and relaxing. This property truly has it all, making it the perfect place to call home.

34. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $207,000
35. 2022-07-25
    historical
36. 2022-07-15
    listed $240,000 Active
37. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus $220,000
38. 2012-02-06
    historical
39. 2012-01-31
    soldstatus $63,835
40. 2011-11-04
    listed $59,900
41. 1990-09-10
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,392 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,392 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,956
• − Property taxes: −$3,392
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$7,767
• Taxable loss: −$5,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+251.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $260,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $215,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $199,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $254,900 realMLS
• 2025-11-28 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-11-13 Contingent — realMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $264,900 realMLS
• 2023-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-09 Sold (MLS) $289,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-02-21 Price Changed $275,999 realMLS
• 2023-02-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-02-17 Listed $299,999 realMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $299,999 realMLS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $319,000 realMLS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listed $240,000 realMLS
• 2022-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-06 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (MLS) $63,835 realMLS
• 2011-11-04 Listed $59,900 realMLS
• 1990-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,392 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.