4111 164th St SW #43 · North Lynnwood, WA 98087

$54,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1977 $65/sqft · 45% below area Est $99k · 45% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ Community Opportunity knocks! Spacious living room, dining area and 2 bedrooms. Kitchen has eating area with large picture window to offer plenty of natural light. Built-ins and generous storage throughout, plus a large detached shed with electricity—ideal for hobbies or workspace. Tandem 3 car covered carport adds convenience. Corner unit gives plenty of privacy. Pet-friendly community near Alderwood Mall with easy access to I-5 and 405. Why rent when you can own for less? Bring your vision and make it yours! Amazing potential for sweat equity.

Key facts

• Tandem carport
• Large picture window
• Corner unit

Tags

• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• DETACHED SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• TANDEM CARPORT
• CORNER UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.6% vs local median 2.3% in North Lynnwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#6 in WA, #107 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Edmonds School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #53 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $50,004 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.98%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,146
• List price: $54,950
• Delta: -44.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4111 164th St SW #36	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (+10%)	4mo	$39,900	$43	80
4111 164th St SW #16	0.00mi	2/2.0	952 (+13%)	0mo	$40,000	$42	73
3832 164th St SW #10	0.27mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	11mo	$113,556	$123	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $78,598
• Equity at exit: $8,193

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.09×
• Total profit: $170,572
• Equity at exit: $4,751

Cash invested: $15,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98087

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $431

Max offer price $54,950

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,467	-5% $1,451	+0% $1,436	+5% $1,420	+10% $1,405
Rent	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,347	+0% $1,436	+5% $1,525	+10% $1,613
Rate	-1.0pp $1,464	-0.5pp $1,450	base $1,436	+0.5pp $1,422	+1.0pp $1,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,738
• Closing costs: $1,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 164th St SW Unit A204 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,450	$2.23	44d	1	0.11mi
3805 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,295	$2.72	2d	5	0.20mi
15914 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$2,159	$2.32	2d	10	0.26mi
3711 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,514	$2.97	0d	7	0.27mi
2510 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,662	$2.67	0d	1	0.32mi
15700 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,979	$2.11	3d	1	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	946	$2,500	$2.64	0d	1	0.33mi
16104 36th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	761	$2,099	$2.76	0d	5	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Unit H4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	44d	1	0.34mi
4109 156th St SW Unit A3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	988	$1,895	$1.92	25d	1	0.35mi
4109 156th St SW Unit B4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	985	$1,995	$2.03	44d	1	0.35mi
3333 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,522	$2.41	0d	20	0.39mi
4525 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,042	$1.87	0d	9	0.41mi
15713 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	940	$2,000	$2.13	25d	1	0.47mi
16200 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$3,019	$3.86	0d	34	0.57mi
16003 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,910	$1.81	0d	4	0.63mi
16604 48th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,162	$2.43	3d	9	0.63mi
3116 164th St SW #2211 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,425	$2.20	0d	1	0.68mi
16308 52nd Ave W Unit 4 Edmonds, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	11d	1	0.72mi
15001 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$2,040	$2.31	0d	15	0.79mi
17314 44th Ave W Unit C Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	18d	1	0.81mi
3717 148th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,912	$2.21	3d	6	0.88mi
4902 148th St SW Edmonds, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$2,221	$2.77	0d	10	0.90mi
17529 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	4d	1	0.96mi
4410 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	770	$1,850	$2.40	5d	3	1.00mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	44d	1	1.07mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4428 176th St SW Unit 4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4702 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	886	$1,950	$2.20	0d	7	1.08mi
4816 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	802	$1,970	$2.45	0d	6	1.09mi
4502 176th St SW Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	44d	1	1.11mi
5419 172nd Pl SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	980	$2,895	$2.95	25d	1	1.11mi
17422 52nd Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,960	$2.31	25d	1	1.12mi
17828 44th Ave W Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	44d	1	1.14mi
14611 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$2,299	$2.29	2d	11	1.18mi
16116 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,367	$2.37	0d	9	1.34mi
18031 36th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$2,186	$2.88	0d	6	1.34mi
16605 Ash Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	802	$3,125	$3.89	0d	73	1.35mi
18124 36th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,159	$2.63	0d	9	1.36mi
14131 Admiralty Way Unit B Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,245	$2.25	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,950 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,950 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,950 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,950 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,950 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,950 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,950 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,950 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,950 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,950 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,950 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,950 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,950 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,950 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $54,950
16. 2026-04-01
    price $69,500
17. 2026-02-27
    listed $79,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,078
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$1,599
• Taxable income: $17,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,166
• After-tax cash flow: $13,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmonds School District
• NCES district ID: 5302400
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 53.94/100
• National rank: #3026
• State rank: #53 of 291 in WA

Livability — North Lynnwood

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #107

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lynnwood, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 40,607
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,796
• Household income: $106,693
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2303.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 20% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.54%
• Current HPI: 320.6888
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-31.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $54,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $69,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $79,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $350 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.