2537 Carmel Rd · Grayson Valley, AL 35235

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot Est $200k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! Opportunity awaits in desirable Graystone Valley! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home offers an abundance of living space, a functional floor plan, and a large backyard with endless potential. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. With the right updates and improvements, this home could truly shine. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the possibilities this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.26 acre; Located in the Grayson Valley subdivision; Property accessed via paved road

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry; Driveway parking; Total of 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Underground utilities; Internet service available (provider TBD)
• Home design: Existing single-family property; Two-side brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Open deck; No pool; No patio; No garden/patio; Not waterfront; Not in flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level; Two half bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; Has attic with pull-down access; Partial basement with both finished and unfinished areas; Daylight basement; Finished basement living space; Den/Family room located in the basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.5% in Grayson Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#139 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.67%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2537 Carmel Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (0%)	0mo	$139,999	$87	100
2610 Gaylon St	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,572 (-2%)	3mo	$130,000	$83	83
5441 J R Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (+5%)	2mo	$245,000	$146	73
2521 Wright Cir	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-6%)	4mo	$149,997	$99	70
2713 Shoemaker St	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,651 (+3%)	6mo	$204,000	$124	69
2205 Pentland Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-2%)	4mo	$210,000	$135	68
2506 Martin Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+14%)	1mo	$195,000	$107	67
2648 Denise Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+13%)	4mo	$224,900	$125	63
5565 Jeremiah Ln	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,787 (+12%)	0mo	$256,000	$143	61
2428 Glenmore Ct	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (-14%)	2mo	$213,000	$155	44
2324 Pentland Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,825 (+14%)	4mo	$250,000	$137	43
5450 Old Springville Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,372 (-14%)	2mo	$126,000	$92	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,103
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $46,802
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35235

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $388	+0% $348	+5% $309	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $290	+0% $348	+5% $407	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $384	base $348	+0.5pp $312	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2561 Gaylon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1318	$1,345	$1.02	22d	1	0.12mi
2524 Daly Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,565	$1.45	44d	1	0.17mi
2505 Martin Rd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,550	$1.00	2d	1	0.23mi
2345 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,150	$1.09	3d	1	0.41mi
2358 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	3.0	1320	$1,503	$1.14	12d	1	0.43mi
2350 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,595	$1.16	44d	1	0.43mi
2463 Hampstead Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,127	$1.02	3d	1	0.62mi
5528 Saint James St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1072	$1,150	$1.07	44d	1	0.65mi
2504 Beechwood Trl Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,435	$1.06	22d	1	0.66mi
2487 Hampstead Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1163	$995	$0.86	3d	1	0.66mi
5531 Saint James St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1072	$950	$0.89	44d	1	0.68mi
2258 Cheshire Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,050	$0.91	44d	1	0.72mi
2543 Hampstead Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,123	$0.88	24d	1	0.74mi
2202 Cheshire Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,325	$0.86	3d	1	0.81mi
5505 Leighaven Way Pinson, AL	3.0	2.5	1682	$2,000	$1.19	11d	1	0.95mi
5140 Hickory Dr NE Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1518	$1,465	$0.97	22d	1	1.06mi
5240 Jean Dr Pinson, AL	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,695	$0.99	44d	1	1.09mi
5520 Desoto Cir Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,823	$1.06	12d	1	1.12mi
5010 Darlene Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1914	$1,550	$0.81	24d	1	1.22mi
2025 Brewster Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	1.33mi
5764 Desoto Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,225	$1.11	2d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   price $139,999
3. 2026-05-18
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2026-04-27
   price $159,999
5. 2026-04-04
   price $169,999
6. 1996-03-21
   soldstatus $70,500
7. 1992-09-01
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $3,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grayson Valley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #13418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayson Valley, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,526
• Household income: $63,295
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 30% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.62%
• Current HPI: 204.6532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $139,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $139,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $159,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $169,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1996-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records