9153 Ottawa Dr · Daphne, AL 36526

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2010 0.30 ac lot Est $317k · 13% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estate Sale. Home located in Ottawa Springs subdivision across the road (County Rd 13) from Daphne Middle School. It has three (3) bedrooms, two (2) baths and has 1811 square feet. Home is being sold AS/IS Where IS. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2010

Tags

• OTTAWA SPRINGS SUBDIVISION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $275 covering grounds maintenance; No community amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached double garage with automatic door; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Daphne Utilities; Electric service for cooling/heating
• Home design: One-story property; Resale condition; Whole ownership
• Construction: Brick and wood frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built area approximately 1811 square feet
• Exterior features: Front porch, rear porch, and open porch; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom plan; Fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($466/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Daphne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daphne East Elementary School (math 44% / reading 68%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 930 students, 40% FRL); Daphne Middle School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade D, #45 of 257 statewide, top 18%, 846 students, 45% FRL); Daphne High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #33 of 305 statewide, top 11%, 1,725 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 600 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,727 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,925
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9738 Ottawa Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,813 (+0%)	17mo	$345,000	$190	77
9522 Ottawa Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+3%)	12mo	$318,000	$171	73
9490 Ottawa Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,866 (+3%)	11mo	$325,000	$174	73
9158 Ashley Ct	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (+15%)	2mo	$411,000	$198	60
9778 Ottawa Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,053 (+13%)	9mo	$359,000	$175	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,975
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,528
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36526

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 600
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,408/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $117	+0% $39	+5% $-39	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-48	+0% $39	+5% $126	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $109	base $39	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9090 Pleasant Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2432	$2,795	$1.15	23d	1	0.45mi
8964 Rand Ave Daphne, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1183	$2,168	$1.83	15d	27	0.51mi
9153 Parliament Cir Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2462	$2,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.57mi
8024 Irwin Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,195	$1.23	45d	1	0.79mi
8024 Irwin Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,195	$1.23	23d	1	0.79mi
25920 Argonne Dr Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.82mi
27035 Allenbrook Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2335	$2,795	$1.20	15d	1	0.90mi
27078 Stratford Glen Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,300	$1.05	15d	1	0.97mi
8254 County Road 64 Daphne, AL	2.0	2.0	1566	$1,749	$1.12	23d	5	1.13mi
9549 Autauga Bnd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2289	$2,895	$1.26	45d	1	1.16mi
8160 County Road 64 Daphne, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,729	$1.62	15d	17	1.34mi
25806 Pollard Rd Daphne, AL	3.0	2.5	1491	$1,722	$1.16	15d	3	1.42mi
25806 Pollard Rd Daphne, AL	3.0	2.5	1491	$1,725	$1.16	23d	2	1.42mi
25806 Pollard Rd Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1459	$1,825	$1.25	45d	2	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 269-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $275,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,408
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $1,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Daphne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #3949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Daphne, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 36,484
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 36,484
• Household income: $88,750
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.47%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+14.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $275,000 BCAR
• 2009-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,408 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.