8 Dartmouth Ct · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $825/mo HOA · 51% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home located in River Valley Estates. This is a manufactured home community located about 2 hours from the city. The community offers a pool, basketball/tennis court, clubhouse, and playground. This community is in the Catskill Mountains, where people can enjoy the many amenities that the area has to offer. Close to the Neversink Reservoir, hiking, fishing, biking, horseback riding, as well as many water activities around the area. Within 25 minutes of the Resorts World, Kartrite water park, Golf, Yo1 Wellness Center, skiing, and Bethel Woods. An affordable way to enjoy it all as your place to call home year-round, or just a part-time getaway. The unique opportunity is there to choose your neighbor. You could have family/friends purchase the house next door for $149,900 and make this a wonderful new experience for all!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• River valley estates
• Playground

Tags

• RIVER VALLEY ESTATES
• COMMUNITY OFFERS A POOL
• BASKETBALL TENNIS COURT
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• CLOSE TO NEVERSINK RESERVOIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (41.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $64,241 (41.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.32%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $40,299
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $135,569
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$825
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $64,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-278	+0% $-316	+5% $-354	+10% $-392
Rent	-10% $-443	-5% $-380	+0% $-316	+5% $-253	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-261	-0.5pp $-288	base $-316	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $825 · $9,900/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $110,000 Active 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Newly renovated 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home located in River Valley Estates. This is a manufactured home community located about 2 hours from the city. The community offers a pool, basketball/tennis court, clubhouse, and playground. This community is in the Catskill Mountains, where people can enjoy the many amenities that the area has to offer. Close to the Neversink Reservoir, hiking, fishing, biking, horseback riding, as well as many water activities around the area. Within 25 minutes of the Resorts World, Kartrite water park, Golf, Yo1 Wellness Center, skiing, and Bethel Woods. An affordable way to enjoy it all as your place to call home year-round, or just a part-time getaway. The unique opportunity is there to choose your neighbor. You could have family/friends purchase the house next door for $149,900 and make this a wonderful new experience for all!

17. 2025-06-11
    historical
18. 2025-03-10
    listed $132,500 Active
19. 2024-12-02
    historical
20. 2024-10-04
    price $99,900
21. 2024-09-05
    price $119,900
22. 2024-07-31
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − HOA: −$9,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$5,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This renovated mobile home in River Valley Estates is in good condition with fresh paint and modern appliances, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $132,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $119,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Listed $129,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid