389 Dothan Rd · Hartford Village, VT 05001

$199,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980 2.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private and secluded unique home on a town maintained road. The property offers plenty of room for gardens and includes an outbuilding for storage. Nice deck for summer evenings. Easy commute to the Upper Valley. Being sold "as is" as to condition - BUYERS TO CONDUCT DUE DILIGENCE. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

Key facts

• Open concept
• Balcony
• Babbling brook

Tags

• ADIRONDACK STYLE
• PINE COVERED HILLSIDE
• BABBLING BROOK
• DECK
• BALCONY
• OPEN CONCEPT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Drilled private well; On-site septic (drywell) system; 100 Amp electrical service; Satellite internet available; cable and telephone available
• Home design: Adirondack architectural style; Existing structure
• Construction: Built in 1980; Wood frame construction with wood, metal and vertical siding; Fiberglass batt insulation; Standing seam roof; Concrete foundation with frost wall; Unfinished basement with exterior and interior access and concrete floor
• Exterior features: Hilly, steep and wooded lot with valley and waterfall features; Rural setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Wall oven; Electric stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom suite (14 x 18) on level 2
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (14 x 7) on level 2
• Heating & cooling: Propane and electric heating; Vented gas heater; Hot air heating; Wall heating units
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Open kitchen/living area (16 x 31)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric domestic water heater (tank)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $200k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $179,996 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,481
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,406
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05001

• Home prices YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,219/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $199,500 Active
2. 2019-12-23
   soldstatus $58,000
3. 2019-12-20
   soldstatus $58,000 Closed 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Private and secluded unique home on a town maintained road. The property offers plenty of room for gardens and includes an outbuilding for storage. Nice deck for summer evenings. Easy commute to the Upper Valley. Being sold "as is" as to condition - BUYERS TO CONDUCT DUE DILIGENCE. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

4. 2019-11-22
   historical 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Private and secluded unique home on a town maintained road. The property offers plenty of room for gardens and includes an outbuilding for storage. Nice deck for summer evenings. Easy commute to the Upper Valley. Being sold "as is" as to condition - BUYERS TO CONDUCT DUE DILIGENCE. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

5. 2019-08-29
   historical Active with Contract 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Private and secluded unique home on a town maintained road. The property offers plenty of room for gardens and includes an outbuilding for storage. Nice deck for summer evenings. Easy commute to the Upper Valley. Being sold "as is" as to condition - BUYERS TO CONDUCT DUE DILIGENCE. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

6. 2019-08-23
   listed $58,000 Active 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Private and secluded unique home on a town maintained road. The property offers plenty of room for gardens and includes an outbuilding for storage. Nice deck for summer evenings. Easy commute to the Upper Valley. Being sold "as is" as to condition - BUYERS TO CONDUCT DUE DILIGENCE. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,005 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$786/yr (+$65/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,219
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$2,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $1,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Hartford Village

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hartford Village, VT
• County: Windsor County · 9,751 people
• Metro: Lebanon, NH-VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,751
• Household income: $78,092
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.43%
• Current HPI: 338.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lebanon, NH-VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+244.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $199,500 PrimeMLS
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-20 Sold (MLS) $58,000 PrimeMLS
• 2019-11-22 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2019-08-29 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2019-08-23 Listed $58,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,219 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.