Gerson Plan · Geronimo, TX 78155

$195,174

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 359 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $195,174 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $219,835.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 2022 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,781 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,835
• List price: $195,174
• Delta: -11.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5507 Alope Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	3mo	$198,999	$142	86
9248 James Bowie	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-6%)	1mo	$172,500	$136	86
5526 Alope Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	2mo	$194,999	$139	85
5534 Alope Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	3mo	$195,999	$140	85
5535 Alope Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	4mo	$194,999	$138	84
5542 Alope Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	3mo	$194,999	$138	83
206 Pastar Fls	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	2mo	$175,999	$130	79
5875 Coahulia Rdg	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	1mo	$180,000	$125	76
5933 Antonio Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	1mo	$174,900	$121	75
245 Pastar Fls	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$185,999	$125	60
229 Pastar Fls	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$185,999	$125	60
214 Pastar Fls	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$185,999	$125	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-50,531
• Equity at exit: $32,778

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-67,471
• Equity at exit: $19,007

Cash invested: $61,554 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $212,999 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 171 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 2022
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $189,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-134	+0% $-210	+5% $-286	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-275	+0% $-210	+5% $-144	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-154	base $-210	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,959
• Closing costs: $6,595
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9258 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,425	$0.99	10d	1	0.03mi
9218 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	10d	1	0.05mi
9218 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	3d	1	0.05mi
9218 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	29d	1	0.05mi
9256 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	85d	1	0.07mi
9201 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,580	$1.10	69d	1	0.08mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	143d	1	0.08mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	43d	1	0.08mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	85d	1	0.10mi
9269 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	43d	1	0.10mi
9269 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	10d	1	0.10mi
9206 Bowie Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	43d	1	0.15mi
9144 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,625	$0.97	10d	1	0.17mi
9144 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,625	$0.97	7d	1	0.17mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	43d	1	0.22mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,625	$1.00	85d	1	0.22mi
5824 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	1d	1	0.24mi
5824 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	43d	1	0.24mi
9437 Nelson Way Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,499	$1.00	10d	1	0.24mi
9517 Chappo Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,450	$0.98	41d	1	0.24mi
9066 Bowie Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.25mi
5912 Texas Spur Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	85d	1	0.26mi
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,545	$1.05	88d	1	0.26mi
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,545	$1.07	101d	1	0.26mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	101d	1	0.27mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	184d	1	0.27mi
5929 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,550	$0.95	46d	1	0.29mi
5918 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,400	$0.97	3d	1	0.29mi
5938 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1627	$1,675	$1.03	10d	1	0.30mi
5938 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,875	$1.15	50d	1	0.30mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	43d	1	0.32mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	47d	1	0.32mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	41d	1	0.32mi
5929 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	13d	1	0.32mi
5929 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	10d	1	0.32mi
9211 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	43d	1	0.36mi
245 Pastar Fls Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,675	$1.13	10d	1	0.36mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	184d	1	0.36mi
233 Pastar Fls Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1692	$1,680	$0.99	38d	1	0.36mi
9129 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,800	$1.11	101d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $195,174 Active 359 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $195,174 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $195,174 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $195,174 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $195,174 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $194,999 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $194,999 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $194,999 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $194,999 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $194,999 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $194,999 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $194,999 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $194,999 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $194,999 Active 345 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $194,999 Active 344 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $194,999 Active 343 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $194,999 Active 342 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $194,999 Active 341 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $194,999 Active 340 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $194,999 Active 339 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $194,999 Active 338 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $194,999 Active 337 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $194,999 Active 336 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $194,999 Active 335 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $194,999 Active 334 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $194,999 Active 333 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $194,999 Active 332 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $194,999 Active 331 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $194,999 Active 330 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $194,999 Active 329 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $194,999 Active 328 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $194,999 Active 327 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $194,999 Active 326 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    price $194,999 Active 325 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 325 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 324 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 323 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 322 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 321 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 320 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $199,999 Active 319 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $199,999 Active 318 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $199,999 Active 317 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $199,999 Active 315 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $199,999 Active 314 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $199,999 Active 313 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $199,999 Active 312 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $199,999 Active 311 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $199,999 Active 310 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $199,999 Active 309 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,314
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,099
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$6,395
• Taxable loss: −$6,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,535
• After-tax cash flow: $-980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,770–$20,310 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 51/100

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $190,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $192,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $194,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $196,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $219,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $224,999 Zillow